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Capital Flows and Demographics--An Asian Perspective

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  • Erik Lueth
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    Abstract

    This paper calibrates the production functions of 176 countries to fit 2003 data and examines the capital flows that emerge, when labor forces change according to the 2007 UN population projections. It finds that demographic factors are no help in correcting today's global imbalances; that Japan's capital outflows have as much to do with population aging as with the yen carry-trade; and that China is key to understanding Asia's demographic impact on the world. It also finds that Asia offers the greatest arbitrage opportunities worldwide during the demographic transition and has the greatest potential for regional financial integration among world regions. Moreover, the demographic transition is unlikely to result in an asset price meltdown and could even raise world interest rates under perfect capital mobility.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/8.

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    Length: 23
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/8

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    Related research

    Keywords: Asia; Capital flows; Labor; Aging; Interest rates;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Aging," NBER Working Papers 12147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    3. Robert Holzmann, 2000. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Aging Problem?," CESifo Working Paper Series 304, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-08, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    5. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Larry Kotlikoff, 2003. "The Developed World's Demographic Transition - the Roles of Capital Flows, Immigration, and Policy," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-133, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    6. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    7. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research.
    8. Domeij, David & Flodén, Martin, 2004. "Population Ageing and International Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 4644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    10. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2008. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 589-608, July.
    11. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 3.
    12. Douglas Gollin, 2001. "Getting Income Shares Right," Department of Economics Working Papers 2001-11, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    13. Higgins, Matthew, 1998. "Demography, National Savings, and International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 343-69, May.
    14. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:
    1. Guonan Ma & Zhou Haiwen, 2009. "China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position," BIS Working Papers 286, Bank for International Settlements.

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