External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model
AbstractThis paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variancedecomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most importantfactors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 percent of the variance in Colombian GDP growthrespectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used toanalyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we showthat the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growthwould be non-negligible but still a mild decline by historical standards.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/46.
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2010. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1788-1810, December.
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2008-03-25 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2008-03-25 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
NBER Working Papers
3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Villani, Mattias & Warne, Anders, 2003.
"Monetary policy analysis in a small open economy using Bayesian cointegrated structural VARs,"
Working Paper Series
0296, European Central Bank.
- Villani, Mattias & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy using Bayesian Cointegrated Structural VARs," Working Paper Series 156, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Adolfson, Malin & Andersson, Michael K. & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias & Vredin, Anders, 2005.
"Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks,"
Working Paper Series
188, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
- Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.
- Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
- P&aauml;r �sterholm & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2008.
"The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(4), pages 595-623, December.
- Jeromin Zettelmeyer & PÃ¤r Ã–sterholm, 2007. "The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 07/176, International Monetary Fund.
- Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
- Riccardo LUCCHETTI, 2004.
"Identification of Covariance Structures,"
214, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
- Pär Österholm, 2008. "Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 41-51.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997.
"Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1750, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
- Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel Leigh, 2008. "Achieving a Soft Landing: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 08/69, International Monetary Fund.
- Rupa Duttagupta & N. Barrera, 2010. "The Impact Of The Global Crisis on Canada: What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 10/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, .
"The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy,"
Borradores de Economia
557, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005406, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
- Enrique Flores & Daniel Leigh & Benedict J. Clements, 2009. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia," IMF Working Papers 09/59, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.