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Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery

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Author Info
Norbert Funke
Patrick A. Imam
Eleonara Granziera
Abstract

This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and improvements in government stability and the institutional environment. A timely increase in aid may also support recovery.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/36.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 07 Feb 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/36

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Related research
Keywords: Trade Exchange rate depreciation Economic growth

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2007. "Growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery," BIS Working Papers 226, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bond, Stephen Roy & Hoeffler, Anke & Temple, Jonathan, 2001. "GMM Estimation of Empirical Growth Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3048, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Marianne Baxter & Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2000. "What Causes Fluctuations in the Terms of Trade?," NBER Working Papers 7462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 221-50, May. [Downloadable!]
  5. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
  7. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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This page was last updated on 2008-9-22.

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