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Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Marianne Schulze-Ghattas
  • John Beirne
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper examines volatility spillovers from mature to emerging stock markets and tests for changes in the transmission mechanism-contagion-during turbulences in mature markets. Tri-variate GARCH-BEKK models of returns in global (mature), regional, and local markets are estimated for 41 emerging market economies (EMEs), with a dummy capturing parameter shifts during turbulent episodes. LR tests suggest that mature markets influence conditional variances in many emerging markets. Moreover, spillover parameters change during turbulent episodes. Conditional variances in most EMEs rise during these episodes, but there is only limited evidence of shifts in conditional correlations between mature and emerging markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/286.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/286

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Keywords: Stock markets; Emerging markets; Developed countries; Economic models;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jan Novotný & Jan Hanousek & Evžen Kočenda, 2013. "Price Jump Indicators: Stock Market Empirics During the Crisis," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1050, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Nathaniel Frank & Heiko Hesse, 2009. "Financial Spillovers to Emerging Markets during the Global Financial Crisis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 507-521, December.
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "Sudden spikes in global risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 511-521.
  4. Jozef Barunik & Lukas Vacha & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2011. "Comovement of Central European stock markets using wavelet coherence: Evidence from high-frequency data," Working Papers IES 2011/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
  5. Galin Todorov & Prasad Bidarkota, 2013. "On international financial spillovers to frontier markets," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 433-452.
  6. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2009. "Global and Regional Spillovers in Emerging Stock Markets: A Multivariate GARCH-in-mean Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2794, CESifo Group Munich.
  7. Rodrigo Alfaro A. & Rodrigo Cifuentes S., 2009. "FinanciaL Stability, Monetary Policy and Central Banking: an Overview," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(2), pages 5-10, August.
  8. Andreou, Elena & Matsi, Maria & Savvides, Andreas, 2013. "Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 248-268.
  9. Morales, Lucía & Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Bernadette, 2014. "The global financial crisis: World market or regional contagion effects?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 108-131.
  10. Hong-Ghi Min & Young-Soon Hwang, 2012. "Dynamic correlation analysis of US financial crisis and contagion: evidence from four OECD countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(24), pages 2063-2074, December.
  11. Beirne, John & Gieck, Jana, 2012. "Interdependence and contagion in global asset markets," Working Paper Series 1480, European Central Bank.
  12. Kenji Moriyama, 2010. "The Spillover Effects of the Global Crisis on Economic Activity in MENA Emerging Market Countries-An Analysis Using the Financial Stress Index," IMF Working Papers 10/8, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2010. "Financial spillovers from the US financial markets to the emerging markets during the subprime crisis: the example of Indian equity markets," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-34, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).

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