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A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

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Author Info
Ondra Kamenik
Ioan Carabenciov
Igor Ermolaev
Charles Freedman
Dmitry Korshunov
Douglas Laxton
Michel Juillard

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Abstract

This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/278.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 10 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/278

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Related research
Keywords: Economic forecasting ; United States ; Monetary policy ; Forecasting models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ola Melander & Tamim Bayoumi, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Laidler, 2003. "The Price Level, Relative Prices, and Economic Stability: Aspects of the Inter-War Debate," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 200310, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Juillard, Michael & Kamenik, Ondra & Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas, 2008. "Optimal price setting and inflation inertia in a rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2584-2621, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Athanasios Orphanides, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Working Papers 95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Credit effects in the monetary mechanism," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 217-235. [Downloadable!]
  7. Philippe D Karam & Natan P. Epstein & Eyal Argov & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 2007. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Credibility in a Small Macro Model of Israel," IMF Working Papers 07/207, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg, 2006. "A Practical Model-Based Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis--Overview," IMF Working Papers 06/80, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  10. Andrew Swiston & Tamim Bayoumi, 2007. "Foreign Entanglements: Estimating the Source and Size of Spillovers Across Industrial Countries," IMF Working Papers 07/182, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Philippe D Karam & Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis--A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 06/81, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michel Juillard & Ondrej Kamenik & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Measures of Potential Output from an Estimated DSGE Model of the United States," Working Papers 2006/11, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Philippe D Karam & Dennis P. J. Botman & Douglas Laxton & David Rose, 2007. "DSGE Modeling at the Fund: Applications and Further Developments," IMF Working Papers 07/200, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Jared Laxton & Douglas Laxton & Michel Juillard, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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