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Inflation Determinants in Paraguay: Cost Push versus Demand Pull Factors

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Author Info
Brieuc Monfort
Santiago Peña
Abstract

This article uses two analytical methodologies to understand the dynamics of inflation in Paraguay, the mark-up theory of inflation and the monetary theory of inflation. We also study the impact of different monetary aggregates. The results suggest that monetary factors, in particular currency in circulation, play a major role in determining long-run inflation, while foreign prices, in particular from Brazil, or some food products have a large impact on the short-term dynamics of inflation. Wage indexation may also contribute to locking up price increases.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/270.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 05 Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/270

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Keywords: Paraguay ; Inflation ; Wage indexation ; Price increases ; Demand for money ; Spillovers ;

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  1. Mick Silver, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures and Statistical Issues in Choosing Among Them," IMF Working Papers 06/97, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David A. Grigorian & Armine Khachatryan & Grigor Sargsyan, 2004. "Exchange Rate, Money, and Wages: What is Driving Prices in Armenia?," IMF Working Papers 04/229, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oomes, Nienke & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2005. "Money demand and inflation in dollarized economies: The case of Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 462-483, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Bogdan Lissovolik, 2003. "Determinants of Inflation in a Transition Economy: the Case of Ukraine," IMF Working Papers 03/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. de Brouwer, Gordon & Ericsson, Neil R, 1998. "Modeling Inflation in Australia," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 433-49, October.
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  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Toshitaka Sekine, 2001. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in Japan," IMF Working Papers 01/82, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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