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What is Really Good for Long-Term Growth? Lessons from a Binary ClassificationTree (BCT) Approach

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  • Rupa Duttagupta
  • Montfort Mlachila
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    Abstract

    Although the economic growth literature has come a long way since the Solow-Swan model of the fifties, there is still considerable debate on the "real'' or "deep" determinants of growth. This paper revisits the question of what is really important for strong long-term growth by using a Binary Classification Tree approach, a nonparametric statistical technique that is not commonly used in the growth literature. A key strength of the method is that it recognizes that a combination of conditions can be instrumental in leading to a particular outcome, in this case strong growth. The paper finds that strong growth is a result of a complex set of interacting factors, rather than a particular set of variables such as institutions or geography, as is often cited in the literature. In particular, geographical luck and a favorable external environment, combined with trade openness and strong human capital are conducive to growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/263.

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    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/263

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic growth; Trade policy; Human capital; Economic models; population density; terms of trade; trade growth; life expectancy; school enrollment; population growth; trade openness; conditional convergence; per capita income; total population; openness measure; population characteristics; low trade; endogenous growth; mortality rate; high population density; income convergence; human race; endogenous growth theory; trade liberalization; international trade; external shocks; average tariff; open economy; population growth rate; non-tariff barriers; tariff rate; average tariff rate; tariff barriers; external openness; income distribution; process of integration;

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    References

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    1. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger Wolf, 1998. "Thresholds and Context Dependence in Growth," NBER Working Papers 6480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    3. Galor, Oded, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 4581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rupa Duttagupta & Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/93, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    6. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
    7. Kevin Hoover & Harris Dellas, 2003. "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Working Papers 11, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    8. Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2000. "Growth economics and reality," Working papers 24, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    9. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (Bace) Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 266, OECD Publishing.
    10. Edward E. Leamer, 1982. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," UCLA Economics Working Papers 239, UCLA Department of Economics.
    11. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian & Francesco Trebbi, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 9305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. " Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March.
    13. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-44, April.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
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