Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

What is Really Good for Long-Term Growth? Lessons from a Binary ClassificationTree (BCT) Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Rupa Duttagupta
  • Montfort Mlachila
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Although the economic growth literature has come a long way since the Solow-Swan model of the fifties, there is still considerable debate on the "real'' or "deep" determinants of growth. This paper revisits the question of what is really important for strong long-term growth by using a Binary Classification Tree approach, a nonparametric statistical technique that is not commonly used in the growth literature. A key strength of the method is that it recognizes that a combination of conditions can be instrumental in leading to a particular outcome, in this case strong growth. The paper finds that strong growth is a result of a complex set of interacting factors, rather than a particular set of variables such as institutions or geography, as is often cited in the literature. In particular, geographical luck and a favorable external environment, combined with trade openness and strong human capital are conducive to growth.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22483
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/263.

    as in new window
    Length: 27
    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/263

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Economic growth; Trade policy; Human capital; Economic models; population density; terms of trade; trade growth; life expectancy; school enrollment; population growth; trade openness; conditional convergence; per capita income; total population; openness measure; population characteristics; low trade; endogenous growth; mortality rate; high population density; income convergence; human race; endogenous growth theory; trade liberalization; international trade; external shocks; average tariff; open economy; population growth rate; non-tariff barriers; tariff rate; average tariff rate; tariff barriers; external openness; income distribution; process of integration;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
    4. Bleaney, Michael & Nishiyama, Akira, 2002. " Explaining Growth: A Contest between Models," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 43-56, March.
    5. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier.
    6. Rupa Duttagupta & Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 08/93, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-44, April.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    9. Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions," Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics 01-01, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    10. Easterly, W & Levine, R, 1996. "Africa's Growth Tragedy : Policies and Ethnic Divisions," Papers, Harvard - Institute for International Development 536, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
    11. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    12. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
    13. William A. Brock & Steven N.Durlauf, 2000. "Growth Economics and Reality," NBER Working Papers 8041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Atish R. Ghosh & Holger Wolf, 1998. "Thresholds and Context Dependence in Growth," NBER Working Papers 6480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/263. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.