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Stresstesting Household Debt in Korea

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  • Meral Karasulu
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    Abstract

    Korean household debt has reached 148 percent of disposable income, high by emerging market standards. Most of this debt remains at variable rates, shifting the interest rate risk from better diversified financial institutions to households and increasing their sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks. This paper examines the sources of, and risks from, household debt by employing stress tests on household level panel data. Results suggest that a 100-300 bps increase in interest rates could increase distressed household debt household debt by 8½?17 percentage points (ppt). A drop in real estate prices by 10?30 percent could add another 4 ppt to distressed debt. Ongoing transition to amortizing mortgages in 2008?09 presents additional challenges as interest payments on debt are likely to increase further.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/255.

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    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/255

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    Related research

    Keywords: Public debt; Interest rates; Income distribution; Real estate prices; Economic models; real estate; real estate owners; mortgages; mortgage; homeownership; real estate price; housing finance; mortgage loans; home ownership; housing loans; real estate assets; mortgage market; housing prices; nontraditional mortgages; variable rate mortgages; real estate values; mortgage loan; home mortgages;

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    6. Herrala, Risto & Kauko, Karlo, 2007. "Household loan loss risk in Finland – estimations and simulations with micro data," Research Discussion Papers 5/2007, Bank of Finland.
    7. Campbell, Jeffrey R. & Hercowitz, Zvi, 2009. "Welfare implications of the transition to high household debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    11. Glenn B. Canner & Arthur B. Kennickell & Charles A. Luckett, 1995. "Household sector borrowing and the burden of debt," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 323-338.
    12. Gabe de Bondt, 1999. "Credit channels and consumption in Europe: empirical evidence," BIS Working Papers 69, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Inci Ötker, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Erwin R. Tiongson & Naotaka Sugawara & Victor Sulla & Ashley Taylor & Anna I. Gueorguieva & Victoria Levin & Kalanidhi Subbarao, 2010. "The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2396, October.
    2. Tom Bilston & David Rodgers, 2013. "A Model for Stress Testing Household Lending in Australia," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 27-38, December.
    3. Petr Hlavac & Petr Jakubik & Kamil Galuscak, 2013. "Household stress tests using microdata," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2012/2013, chapter 0, pages 113-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    4. Kim, Hyun Jeong & Lee, Dongyeol & Son, Jong Chil & Son, Min Kyu, 2014. "Household indebtedness in Korea: Its causes and sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 59-76.

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