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StressTesting Household Debt in Korea

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Author Info
Meral Karasulu
Abstract

Korean household debt has reached 148 percent of disposable income, high by emerging market standards. Most of this debt remains at variable rates, shifting the interest rate risk from better diversified financial institutions to households and increasing their sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks. This paper examines the sources of, and risks from, household debt by employing stress tests on household level panel data. Results suggest that a 100-300 bps increase in interest rates could increase distressed household debt household debt by 8½?17 percentage points (ppt). A drop in real estate prices by 10?30 percent could add another 4 ppt to distressed debt. Ongoing transition to amortizing mortgages in 2008?09 presents additional challenges as interest payments on debt are likely to increase further.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/255.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 14 Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/255

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Related research
Keywords: Korea; Republic of ; Public debt ; Interest rates ; Income distribution ; Real estate prices ; Economic models ;

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  2. Tommaso Monacelli, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Collateralized Household Debt and Borrowing Constraints," NBER Working Papers 12470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Inci Ötker & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Hayashi, Fumio, 1985. "The Effect of Liquidity Constraints on Consumption: A Cross-sectional Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 183-206, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Glenn B. Canner & Arthur B. Kennickell & Charles A. Luckett, 1995. "Household sector borrowing and the burden of debt," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 323-338.
  8. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Dean M. Maki, 2000. "The growth of consumer credit and the household debt service burden," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Ana del Río & Garry Young, 2005. "The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households," Banco de España Working Papers 0512, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Muzafar Shah Habibullah & Peter Smith & W. N. W. Azman-Saini, 2006. "Testing liquidity constraints in 10 Asian developing countries: an error-correction model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(21), pages 2535-2543, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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