Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries
AbstractThis paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/253.
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AFR-2008-12-01 (Africa)
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-01 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-12-01 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ENE-2008-12-01 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2008-12-01 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-OPM-2008-12-01 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Emmanuel Saez, 2002.
"Direct or Indirect Tax Instruments for Redistribution: Short-run versus Long-run,"
NBER Working Papers
8833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Saez, Emmanuel, 2004. "Direct or indirect tax instruments for redistribution: short-run versus long-run," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(3-4), pages 503-518, March.
- Francis Y. Kumah & John Matovu, 2005. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance," IMF Working Papers 05/171, International Monetary Fund.
- Lane, Philip R, 2003.
"Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
- Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 20032, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998.
"Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?,"
NBER Working Papers
6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Ravn, M.O., 1996.
"Permanent and transitory shocks, and the UK business cycle,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
9627, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Ravn, Morten O, 1997. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks, and the UK Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 27-48, Jan.-Feb..
- Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
- Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007.
"Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
- Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2005. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0670, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 10788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ardagna, Silvia & Lane, Timothy & Caselli, Francesco, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," Scholarly Articles 2579739, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 4661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund.
- Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0411, European Central Bank.
- Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Kaiser, Regina & Maravall, Agustin, 2005.
"Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation),"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 691-710.
- Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers 0417, Banco de Espa�a.
- Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1993. "Interpreting the Cyclical Behavior of Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 266-298, June.
- Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988.
"Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to demonstrate IV estimation of VAR in panel data," Statistical Software Components RTZ00185, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Finn E. Kydland & Calos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 1997. "Is the business cycle of Argentina "different?"," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 21-36.
- Antonio Spilimbergo, 2007.
"Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia,"
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,
M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(6), pages 25-44, November.
- Antonio Spilimbergo, 2005. "Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia," IMF Working Papers 05/241, International Monetary Fund.
- C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard AgÃ©nor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
- Magda E. Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2010.
"Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
10/123, International Monetary Fund.
- Magda Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 420-439, June.
- Ali Alichi & Rabah Arezki, 2009. "An Alternative Explanation for the Resource Curse," IMF Working Papers 09/112, International Monetary Fund.
- Ali Alichi & Rabah Arezki, 2012.
"An alternative explanation for the resource curse: the income effect channel,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2881-2894, August.
- Arezki, Rabah & Alichi, Ali, 2009. "An Alternative Explanation for the Resource Curse: The Income Effect Channel," MPRA Paper 17130, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Korhonen, Iikka & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate, Output and Oil: Case of Four Large Energy Producers," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
- Syed Abul Basher & Elsayed Mousa Elsamadisy, 2012.
"Country heterogeneity and long-run determinants of inflation in the Gulf Arab states,"
OPEC Energy Review,
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 36(2), pages 170-203, 06.
- Basher, Syed Abul & Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa, 2010. "Country Heterogeneity and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in the Gulf Arab States," MPRA Paper 27348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
- Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- El Anshasy, Amany A. & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2013. "Natural resources and fiscal performance: Does good governance matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 285-298.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.