Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kamilya Tazhibayeva
  • Aasim M. Husain
  • Anna Ter-Martirosyan
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22434
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/253.

    as in new window
    Length: 21
    Date of creation: 01 Nov 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/253

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Oil prices; Oil exporting countries; Nonoil sector; Economic growth; Economic models; fiscal policy; public spending; fiscal impulse; fiscal stance; oil sector; oil group; oil price changes; government spending; fiscal spending; government expenditure; fiscal revenue; ratio of public spending; oil-producing countries; opec; fiscal discipline; world oil prices; oil supply; taxation; fiscal deficits; fiscal stimulus; spot price; public debt; fiscal expansion; fiscal variables; central government expenditure; fiscal policy formulation; petroleum exporting countries; oil production; fiscal position; oil companies; fiscal response; fiscal deficit; fiscal rules; organization of petroleum exporting countries; higher oil prices; debt service; oil exports; fiscal performance; fiscal impact; oil ? group; fiscal balance; oil reserves;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Finn E. Kydland & Calos E.J.M.Zarazaga, 1997. "Is the business cycle of Argentina "different?"," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 21-36.
    2. Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Caselli & Timothy Lane, 2005. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," CEP Discussion Papers, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE dp0670, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Lane, Philip R, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
    4. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
    5. Alfredo Baldini, 2005. "Fiscal Policy and Business Cycles in an Oil-Producing Economy," IMF Working Papers 05/237, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Blejer, Mario I & Cheasty, Adrienne, 1991. "The Measurement of Fiscal Deficits: Analytical and Methodological Issues," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 1644-78, December.
    7. Ravn, Morten O, 1997. "Permanent and Transitory Shocks, and the UK Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 27-48, Jan.-Feb..
    8. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Antonio Spilimbergo, 2007. "Measuring the Performance of Fiscal Policy in Russia," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(6), pages 25-44, November.
    10. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 2004. "Combining filter design with model based filtering (with an application to business cycle estimation)," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0417, Banco de Espa�a.
    11. Francis Y. Kumah & John Matovu, 2005. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Oddson Fiscal Performance," IMF Working Papers 05/171, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Ardagna, Silvia & Caselli, Francesco & Lane, Timothy, 2004. "Fiscal discipline and the cost of public dept service: some estiames for OECD countries," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 0411, European Central Bank.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Emmanuel Saez, 2002. "Direct or Indirect Tax Instruments for Redistribution: Short-run versus Long-run," NBER Working Papers 8833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bankim Chadha & Eswar Prasad, 1993. "Interpreting the Cyclical Behavior of Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(2), pages 266-298, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Basher, Syed Abul & Elsamadisy, Elsayed Mousa, 2010. "Country Heterogeneity and Long-Run Determinants of Inflation in the Gulf Arab States," MPRA Paper 27348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
    3. Magda E. Kandil & Hanan Morsy, 2010. "Fiscal Stimulus and Credibility in Emerging Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/123, International Monetary Fund.
    4. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2013. "Natural resources and fiscal performance: Does good governance matter?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 285-298.
    5. Ali Alichi & Rabah Arezki, 2012. "An alternative explanation for the resource curse: the income effect channel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(22), pages 2881-2894, August.
    6. Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. El Anshasy, Amany A. & Bradley, Michael D., 2012. "Oil prices and the fiscal policy response in oil-exporting countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 605-620.
    8. Ali Alichi & Rabah Arezki, 2009. "An Alternative Explanation for the Resource Curse," IMF Working Papers 09/112, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Korhonen, Iikka & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "Real Exchange Rate, Output and Oil: Case of Four Large Energy Producers," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 6/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/253. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.