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A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality

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Author Info
Olivier Jeanne
Jonathan David Ostry
Jeromin Zettelmeyer

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Abstract

We present a framework that clarifies the financial role of the IMF, the rationale for conditionality, and the conditions under which IMF-induced moral hazard can arise. In the model, traditional conditionality commits country authorities to undertake crisis resolution efforts, facilitating the return of private capital, and ensuring repayment to the IMF. Nonetheless, moral hazard can arise if there are crisis externalities across countries (contagion) or if country authorities discount crisis costs too much relative to the national social optimum, or both. Moral hazard can be avoided by making IMF lending conditional on crisis prevention efforts-"ex ante" conditionality.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/236.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 07 Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/236

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Keywords: Financial crisis ; Crisis prevention ; Fund role ; Conditionality ; Moral hazard ; Spillovers ;

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  1. Jeanne, Olivier & Wyplosz, Charles, 2001. "The International Lender of Last Resort: How Large is Large Enough?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2842, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Mussa, 1999. "Reforming the International Financial Architecture: Limiting Moral Hazard and Containing Real Hazard," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: David Gruen & Luke Gower (ed.), Capital Flows and the International Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ashoka Mody & Diego Saravia, 2003. "Catalyzing Capital Flows: Do IMF-Supported Programs Work as Commitment Devices?," IMF Working Papers 03/100, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vives, Xavier, 2004. "Coordination Failures and the Lender of Last Resort : Was Bagehot Right After All?," IDEI Working Papers 294, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Wolfgang Mayer & Alex Mourmouras, 2005. "On the Viability of Conditional Assistance Programs," IMF Working Papers 05/121, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Gale, Douglas & Vives, Xavier, 2002. "Dollarization, Bailouts, and the Stability of the Banking System," Discussion Paper Series 26195, Hamburg Institute of International Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Nadeem Ul Haque & Mohsin S. Khan, 1998. "Do IMF-Supported Programs Work? A Survey of the Cross-Country Empirical Evidence," IMF Working Papers 98/169, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2000. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 335-62, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Jacques J. Polak, 1991. "The Changing Nature of IMF Conditionality," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 41, OECD, Development Centre. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jun Il Kim, 2006. "IMF-Supported Programs and Crisis Prevention: An Analytical Framework," IMF Working Papers 06/156, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  11. Peter B. Clark & Haizhou Huang, 2001. "International Financial Contagion and the Fund: A Theoretical Framework," IMF Working Papers 01/137, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Marchesi, Silvia & Thomas, Jonathan P, 1999. "IMF Conditionality as a Screening Device," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C111-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Jeanne, Olivier & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2001. "International Bailouts, Moral Hazard, and Conditionality," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Joseph P. Joyce, 2006. "Promises Made, Promises Broken: A Model Of Imf Program Implementation," Economics and Politics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 339-365, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ilhyock Shim & Ralph Chami & Sunil Sharma, 2004. "A Model of the IMF as a Coinsurance Arrangement," IMF Working Papers 04/219, International Monetary Fund.
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  16. Wolfgang Mayer & Alex Mourmouras, 2004. "The Political Economy of Conditional and Unconditional Foreign Assistance: Grants vs. Loan Rollovers," IMF Working Papers 04/38, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  17. Weithoner, Thomas, 2006. "How can IMF policy eliminate country moral hazard and account for externalities?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1257-1276, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 2006. "Catalytic finance: When does it work?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 161-177, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. S. Nuri Erbas, 2003. "IMF Conditionality and Program Ownership: A Case for Streamlined Conditionality," IMF Working Papers 03/98, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  20. Jonathan David Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2005. "Strengthening IMF Crisis Prevention," IMF Working Papers 05/206, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  21. Carlos de Resende, 2007. "IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs: Welfare Implications and the Catalytic Effect," Working Papers 07-22, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  22. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Guimaraes, Bernardo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2006. "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: A model of IMF's catalytic finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 441-471, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Wolfgang Mayer & Alex Mourmouras, 2002. "Vested Interests in a Positive Theory of IFI Conditionality," IMF Working Papers 02/73, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Peter Rangazas & Alex Mourmouras, 2004. "Conditional Lending Under Altruism," IMF Working Papers 04/100, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  25. Polak, J.J., 1991. "The Changing Nature of IMF Conditionality," Princeton Studies in International Economics 184, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
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