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An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data

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Author Info
Marco Terrones
Enrique G. Mendoza

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Abstract

We study the characteristics of credit booms in emerging and industrial economies. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations and widening external deficits. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and leverage ratios, firm values, and banking fragility. We also find that credit booms are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; most emerging markets crises are associated with credit booms; and credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/226.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 30 Sep 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/226

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Keywords: Credit expansion ; Business cycles ; Emerging markets ; Asset prices ; Current account deficits ; Productivity ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  14. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Inefficient Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 13639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Barry Eichengreen and Carlos Arteta., 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-115, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Abdul Abiad & Thierry Tressel & Enrica Detragiache, 2008. "A New Database of Financial Reforms," IMF Working Papers 08/266, International Monetary Fund.
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  22. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Robert Marquez, 2006. "Lending Booms and Lending Standards," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2511-2546, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Peter Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  27. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility," IMF Working Papers 03/50, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Argandoña, Antonio, 2009. "Can corporate social responsibility help us understand the credit crisis?," IESE Research Papers D/790, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Orrego, Fabrizio, 2009. "Una nota sobre el crecimiento del crédito al sector privado en el Perú," Working Papers 2009-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. [Downloadable!]
  5. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  6. Selim Elekdag & Roberto Cardarelli & Subir Lall, 2009. "Financial Stress, Downturns, and Recoveries," IMF Working Papers 09/100, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Thierry Tressel & Enrica Detragiache, 2008. "Do Financial Sector Reforms Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from a New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 08/265, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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