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Are Weak Banks Leading Credit Booms? Evidence from Emerging Europe

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Author Info

  • Deniz Igan
  • Natalia T. Tamirisa

Abstract

This paper examines the behavior of bank soundness indicators during episodes of brisk loan growth, using bank-level data for central and eastern Europe and controlling for the feedback effect of credit growth on bank soundness. No evidence is found that rapid loan expansion has weakened banks during the last decade, but over time weaker banks seem to have started to expand at least as fast as, and in some markets faster than, stronger banks. These findings suggest that during credit booms supervisors need to carefully monitor the soundness of rapidly expanding banks and stand ready to take action to limit the expansion of weak banks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/219.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/219

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Related research

Keywords: Credit; Baltics; Banking sector; Bank soundness; Credit expansion; Emerging markets; Bank credit; Risk management;

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References

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  1. Ivanna Vladkova Hollar & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Carlo Cottarelli, 2003. "Early Birds, Late Risers, and Sleeping Beauties: Bank Credit Growth to the Private Sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," IMF Working Papers 03/213, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Alejandro Micco & Ugo Panizza & Mónica Yañez, 2004. "Bank Ownership and Performance," Research Department Publications 4381, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2002. "Equity and bond market signals as leading indicators of bank fragility," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Ralph de Haas & Iman van Lelyveld, 2003. "Foreign Banks and Credit Stability in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Analysis," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 109, Netherlands Central Bank.
  6. Arellano, Manuel, 1990. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Random Effects Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 127-34, January.
  7. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Schich, Sebastian T., 2009. "Challenges Associated with the Expansion of Deposit Insurance Coverage during Fall 2008," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 3(20), pages 1-23.
  2. Martin Cihák & Wim Fonteyne, 2009. "Five Years After: European Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States," IMF Working Papers 09/68, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Deniz Igan & Marcelo Pinheiro, 2011. "Credit Growth and Bank Soundness: Fast and Furious?," IMF Working Papers 11/278, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Pomfret, Richard, 2010. "The financial sector and the future of capitalism," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 22-37, March.

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