Original Sin and Procylical Fiscal Policy: Two Sides of the Same Coin?
AbstractThe paper develops a simple model of sovereign debt where default both through direct repudiation and through inflation are possible and give rise to (endogenous) constraints on the currency composition and the level of public debt. This set up allows to show that procyclicality of fiscal policy in EMEs can arise as a by-product of the "original sin" and both can be explained by the presence of weak monetary institutions which cannot commit to price stability. The paper suggests that, as monetary institutions in EMEs strengthen, the "original sin" would fade away and the cyclical properties of fiscal policy would improve.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/209.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-10-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-10-07 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2008-10-07 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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"When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies,"
13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004. "When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Working Papers 10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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