Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Global Volatility and Forex Returns in East Asia

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sanjay Kalra
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    During 2001-07, increases in mature market volatility were associated with declines in forex returns for East Asian countries, consistent with an overall "flight to safety" effect. Estimates from GARCH models suggest that a 5 percentage point increase in mature market equity volatility generated an exchange rate depreciation of up to ½ percent. This sensitivity rose during the latter period in the sample, suggesting greater integration of Asian financial markets with global markets. Unconditional standard deviations estimated from these models also provide operational measures of "long-term" and "excess" volatility in forex markets. Long-run forex volatility declined as Asian economies settled down with generally stronger fundamentals in the post-crisis period to more flexible regimes along with a generally lower level of mature market volatility.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=22301
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/208.

    as in new window
    Length: 31
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/208

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
    Phone: (202) 623-7000
    Fax: (202) 623-4661
    Email:
    Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

    Related research

    Keywords: Exchange rates; Financial stability; Economic models; exchange rate; standard deviation; statistics; heteroscedasticity; standard deviations; equation; foreign exchange; equations; correlation; forecasting; exchange rate volatility; exchange rate depreciation; foreign exchange markets; prediction; time series; exchange markets; dollar exchange rates; econometrics; spot exchange rates; outlier; kurtosis; skewness; probability; flexible exchange rates; log exchange rate; exponential distribution; granger causality; exchange rate management;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier.
    3. John Cairns & Corrinne Ho & Robert McCauley, 2007. "Exchange rates and global volatility: implications for Asia-Pacific currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    4. Corrinne Ho & Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2005. "Trading Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Xiaojing Zhang & Tao Sun, 2009. "Spillovers of the U.S. Subprime Financial Turmoil to Mainland China and Hong Kong SAR," IMF Working Papers 09/166, International Monetary Fund.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/208. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.