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Impact of Macroeconomic, Political, and Institutional Factors on the Structure of Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries

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Author Info
Anastasia Guscina
Abstract

Debt crises that have shaken Latin America, Asia, and Russia have brought an increasing attention to the structure of debt in emerging market countries. Using the newly released Jeanne-Guscina EM Government Debt Database 2006 this paper empirically explores the role of macroeconomic, political, and institutional factors in determining the structure of government debt. Results show that unstable macroeconomic environment, poor quality institutions, and uncertain political climate hinder the development of domestic debt market. Moreover, such instability shifts the debt structure away from long-term local currency fixed rate debt towards short-term debt or to debt indexed to foreign currency, short-term interest rates or inflation. Original sin seems to be on the way out, as more and more countries are issuing local currency debt at longer maturities-which can be explained by successful macroeconomic stabilization policies and lessons learned from the debt crises.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/205.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: 28 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/205

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Keywords: Emerging markets ; Domestic debt ; Financial crisis ; Political economy ; Financial institutions ; Financial stability ; Interest rates ; Inflation ; Working Paper ;

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  8. Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 1999. "Debt management in Brazil: evaluation of the Real Plan and challenges ahead," Textos para discussão 408, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bohn, Henning, 1988. "Why do we have nominal government debt?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 127-140, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael Kumhof & Evan Tanner, 2005. "Government Debt: A Key Role in Financial Intermediation," IMF Working Papers 05/57, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Broner, Fernando A. & Lorenzoni, Guido & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Why do emerging economies borrow short term?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3389, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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