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Macroeconomic Effects of Pension Reform in Russia

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  • David Hauner

Abstract

Putting the pension system on a sustainable footing arguably remains the biggest challenge in Russia''s economic policies. The debate about the policy options was hitherto constrained by the absence of general equilibrium analysis. This paper fills this gap by simulating their macroeconomic effects in a DSGE model calibrated to Russia''s economy-the first of its kind to the best of our knowledge. The results suggest that a minimum benefit level in the public system should optimally be financed through lower government consumption, while higher taxation of labor and capital should be avoided. Reducing public investment spending is superior to increasing consumption taxes unless investment generates high rates of return.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/201.

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Length: 23
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/201

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Keywords: Economic reforms; Private savings; Public investment; Consumption taxes; Aging; Value added tax; pension; replacement rate; retirement; private pension; retirement age; pensions; pension system; risk premium; basic pension; public system; pension reform; replacement rates; rate of return; pension funds; private saving; life expectancy; private pensions; private pension funds; pensioners; early retirement; pension fund; mutual funds; moral hazard; pension systems; contribution rate; notional capital; labor force; real rate of return; public pension; public pension system; tax revenue; pension saving; private investment; pension savings; tax rate; rates of return; pension expenditure; universal pensions; accumulated savings; net foreign assets; pension benefits; investors; pension problem; real interest rates; long-term projections; private pension provision; price indexation; retirement date; funded pensions; retirement decisions; pension spending; investment manager; payroll tax; minimum benefit; labor force participation; early retirement programs; informal sectors; multi-pillar system; average pension; mandatory pillar; foreign investors; voluntary pension saving; health care; pension funding; pension benefit; investment spending; liquidity constraints; full-career worker; retirement programs; benefit level; pension age; individual accounts; pension financing; mandatory savings; contribution payments; value of pensions; state pensions; tax policy; tax rates; mandatory system; pillar system; payroll taxes; contingent liability; government pension; pay-as-you-go pension systems; funded scheme; private pension systems; voluntary pension;

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  1. Wang, Yan & Xu, Dianqing & Wang, Zhi & Zhai, Fan, 2004. "Options and impact of China's pension reform: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 105-127, March.
  2. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover?on the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Willmore, Larry, 2007. "Universal Pensions for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 24-51, January.
  4. Hauner, David, 2008. "Explaining Differences in Public Sector Efficiency: Evidence from Russia's Regions," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1745-1765, October.
  5. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  6. David Hauner, 2007. "Benchmarking the Efficiency of Public Expenditure in the Russian Federation," IMF Working Papers 07/246, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Selden, Mark & You, Laiyin, 1997. "The reform of social welfare in China," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1657-1668, October.
  8. Sinyavskaya, Oxana, 2005. "Pension Reform in Russia: A Challenge of Low Pension Age," Discussion Paper, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University 267, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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Cited by:
  1. Daria Zakharova & Charleen Gust, 2012. "Strengthening Russia's Fiscal Framework," IMF Working Papers 12/76, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Frank Eich & Mauricio Soto & Charleen Gust, 2012. "Reforming the Public Pension System in the Russian Federation," IMF Working Papers 12/201, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Çagaçan Deger, 2008. "Pension Reform in an OLG Model with Multiple Social Security Systems," ERC Working Papers, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University 0805, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Oct 2008.
  4. Montserrat Pallares-Miralles & Carolina Romero & Edward Whitehouse, 2012. "A Worldwide Overview of Facts and Figures," World Bank Other Operational Studies 11891, The World Bank.
  5. Klapper, Leora & Panos, Georgios A., 2011. "Financial literacy and retirement planning : the Russian case," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5827, The World Bank.

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