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Spillovers to Ireland

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  • Daniel Kanda
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    Abstract

    This paper discusses Ireland''s trade and financial linkages with key partner countries, and uses a vector autoregression to examine the impact of shocks to partner country GDP and shocks to Irish competitiveness on Irish GDP. Two main findings are that shocks to U.S. GDP have a larger impact on Irish GDP than shocks to the euro area or the U.K. Also, the share of the variance of Irish GDP explained by shocks to competitiveness rises with the forecast horizon, suggesting that past erosion of competitiveness may yet have a more substantial impact on economic activity.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/2.

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    Length: 20
    Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/2

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    Related research

    Keywords: Spillovers; Trade; External shocks; reer; trading partners; partner country; real effective exchange rate; partner countries; multinational companies; trade in services; capital flows; merchandise exports; exports of goods; export market; unit labor costs; services exports; share of exports; trade data; competitive position; open economy; domestic shocks; merchandise trade; global shocks; external trade;

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    References

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    1. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    2. C. John McDermott & Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Concordance in Business Cycles," IMF Working Papers 00/37, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Michael Kouparitsas, 2004. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Working Paper Series WP-04-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    4. Jean Imbs, 2003. "Trade, Finance, Specialization, and Synchronization," IMF Working Papers 03/81, International Monetary Fund.
    5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Srobona Mitra & Elena Duggar, 2007. "External Linkages and Contagion Risk in Irish Banks," IMF Working Papers 07/44, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    8. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Ireland," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/292, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Lopez, J. Humberto, 1997. "The power of the ADF test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 5-10, November.
    11. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
    12. repec:rus:hseeco:123030 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Robert B. Litterman & Laurence Weiss, 1983. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 1077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:rus:hseeco:123092 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 2003. "International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1216-1239, September.
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    Cited by:
    1. Mwanza Nkusu, 2013. "Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt," IMF Working Papers 13/35, International Monetary Fund.

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