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Efficiency Costs of Myanmar’s Multiple Exchange Rate Regime

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Author Info

  • Masahiro Hori
  • Yu Ching Wong

Abstract

Myanmar's multiple exchange rate system creates various economic distortions. This paper describes the exchange rate practices in Myanmar, develops a model of foreign exchange markets, and presents the efficiency costs imposed by quasi-fiscal operation under the current exchange rate regime. The results of our model-based analyses indicate that the equilibrium exchange rate under the unified market could be at around K 400-500 per U.S. dollar, and using the equilibrium exchange rate (instead of the official exchange rate) as the accounting rate increases trade openness to more than 20 percent from less than 1 percent measured by official statistics. The total efficiency loss caused by the current multiple exchange rate regime is estimated at about 14-17 percent of GDP in 2006/07.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/199.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/199

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange rate unification; Exchange rate regimes; Economic models; Trade models; National accounts; Gross domestic product;

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References

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  1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
  2. Harry Huizinga, 1996. "The Taxation Implicit in Two-Tiered Exchange Rate Systems," IMF Working Papers 96/120, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Romer, Paul, 1994. "New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February.
  4. Huizinga, H.P., 1996. "The Taxation Implicit in Two-Tiered Exchange Rate Systems," Discussion Paper 1996-100, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-64, May.
  6. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Koji Kubo, 2013. "Myanmar's two decades of partial transition to a market economy: a negative legacy for the new government," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 357-370, September.
  2. Kubo, Koji, 2012. "Restructuring the state budget system for disinflation and exchange rate unification in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 320, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  3. Kubo, Koji, 2012. "Real exchange rate appreciation, resource boom, and policy reform in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 358, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  4. Kubo, Koji, 2012. "Trade policies and trade mis-reporting in Myanmar," IDE Discussion Papers 326, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).

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