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Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter: The Case of Brazil

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Author Info
A. R. Pagan
Luis Catão
Douglas Laxton

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Abstract

This paper lays out a structural model that incorporates key features of monetary transmission in typical emerging-market economies, including a bank-credit channel and the role of external debt accumulation on country risk premia and exchange rate dynamics. We use an SVAR representation of the model to study the monetary transmission in Brazil. We find that interest rate changes have swifter effects on output and inflation compared to advanced economies and that exchange rate dynamics plays a key role in this connection. Importantly, the response of inflation to monetary policy shocks has grown stronger and the output-inflation tradeoff improved since the introduction of inflation targeting.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/191.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: 05 Aug 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/191

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Related research
Keywords: Brazil ; Monetary policy ; Inflation targeting ; Emerging markets ; Bank credit ; Interest rates ; Developed countries ; Economic models ; Disinflation ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Paul R. Masson, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Vittorio Corbo & Oscar Landerretche & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," Working Papers 51, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  5. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Vegh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. André Minella, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): a VAR Estimation," Working Papers Series 33, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoît Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The output composition puzzle: a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and United States," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1265-1317.
  10. Martins, Betina Guimarães Dodsworth & Pinto, Rodrigo Ribeiro Antunes & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar, 2004. "Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effects in Brazil: A firm level analysis," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 535, Graduate School of Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Afonso S. Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2007. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," Working Papers Series 129, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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    • Afonso S Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2008. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 139-158 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  13. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Luis F. Céspedes & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in an Emerging Market: Lessons from the Chilean Experience," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 545-575, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Goodfriend, Marvin & McCallum, Bennett T., 2007. "Banking and interest rates in monetary policy analysis: A quantitative exploration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1480-1507, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. José De Gregorio & Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues," RES Working Papers 4427, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  18. Vladimir Klyuev & Ondra Kamenik & Heesun Kiem & Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Why is Canada's Price Level So Predictable?," IMF Working Papers 08/25, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  21. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b26, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  22. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," CEPR Discussion Papers 4376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Anderson, Heather M. & Low, Chin Nam & Snyder, Ralph, 2006. "Single source of error state space approach to the Beveridge Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 104-109, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Andrew Powell & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "The Multilateral Response to the Global Crisis: Rationale, Modalities, and Feasibility," RES Working Papers 4629, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  2. André Minella & Nelson F. Souza-Sobrinho, 2009. "Monetary Channels in Brazil through the Lens of a Semi-Structural Model," Working Papers Series 181, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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