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Monetary Transmission in an Emerging Targeter

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Author Info

  • A. R. Pagan
  • Douglas Laxton
  • Luis Catão

Abstract

This paper lays out a structural model that incorporates key features of monetary transmission in typical emerging-market economies, including a bank-credit channel and the role of external debt accumulation on country risk premia and exchange rate dynamics. We use an SVAR representation of the model to study the monetary transmission in Brazil. We find that interest rate changes have swifter effects on output and inflation compared to advanced economies and that exchange rate dynamics plays a key role in this connection. Importantly, the response of inflation to monetary policy shocks has grown stronger and the output-inflation tradeoff improved since the introduction of inflation targeting.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/191.

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Length: 42
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/191

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Related research

Keywords: Inflation targeting; Emerging markets; Bank credit; Interest rates; Developed countries; Economic models; Disinflation; inflation; monetary policy; central bank; monetary transmission; real interest rate; inflation equation; terms of trade; monetary transmission mechanism; monetary economics; low inflation; aggregate demand; inflation rate; monetary fund; foreign currency; nominal interest rates; monetary policy reaction function; monetary shocks; nominal interest rate; price level; inflation target; reserve requirements; inflation dynamics; relative price; monetary policy transmission mechanism; real rate of interest; inflation-targeting; monetary regimes; inflation rates; high inflation; monetary analysis; monetary stance; rise in inflation; price stability; moderate ? inflation; real rates; fall in inflation; monetary transmission process; relative prices; monetary policy frameworks; annual inflation; monetary shock; reduction in inflation; minimum reserve requirements; money market; real interest rates;

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References

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  1. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility Under Exchange Rate Volatility," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b26, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. Marvin Goodfriend & Bennett T. McCallum, 2007. "Banking and Interest Rates in Monetary Policy Analysis: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 13207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
  4. Bonomo, Marco & Martins, Betina & Pinto, Rodrigo, 2003. "Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 368-396, December.
  5. Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 2534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2004. "Single Source of Error State Space Approach to the Beveridge Nelson Decomposition," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 242, Econometric Society.
  7. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2004. "Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alexandre A. Tombini & Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2006. "The Recent Brazilian Disinflation Process and Costs," Working Papers Series 109, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," IDB Publications 6516, Inter-American Development Bank.
  10. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2003. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation," IMF Working Papers 03/65, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  12. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoît Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The output composition puzzle: a difference in the monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area and United States," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1265-1317.
  13. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Corbo, Vittorio & Landerretche, Oscar & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 2001. "Assessing Inflation Targeting after a Decade of World Experience," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 343-68, October.
  15. Andrea Tokman & Rodrigo Valdés & José De Gregorio, 2005. "Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues," IDB Publications 6696, Inter-American Development Bank.
  16. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
  18. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  19. Vladimir Klyuev & Heesun Kiem & Ondra Kamenik & Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Why is Canada's Price Level so Predictable?," IMF Working Papers 08/25, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Afonso S Bevilaqua & Mário Mesquita & André Minella, 2008. "Brazil: taming inflation expectations," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 139-158 Bank for International Settlements.
  21. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  22. Luis F. Céspedes & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in an Emerging Market: Lessons from the Chilean Experience," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 545-575, December.
  23. Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Inflation Targeting: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 1, pages 001-022 Central Bank of Chile.
  25. André Minella, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Inflation in Brazil (1975-2000): a VAR Estimation," Working Papers Series 33, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Annabelle Mourougane, 2011. "Refining Macroeconomic Policies to Sustain Growth in Brazil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 899, OECD Publishing.
  2. Eduardo Fernandez-Arias & Andrew Powell & Alessandro Rebucci, 2009. "The Multilateral Response to the Global Crisis: Rationale, Modalities, and Feasibility," Research Department Publications 4629, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  3. Oscar Parkyn & Tugrul Vehbi, 2013. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand: Evidence from a VAR Model with Debt Constraints," CAMA Working Papers 2013-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Luis Catão; & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "The Credit Channel and Monetary Transmission in Brazil and Chile: A Structural VAR Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 579, Central Bank of Chile.

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