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Convergence in Emerging Europe: Sustainability and Vulnerabilities

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Author Info
Athanasios Vamvakidis
Abstract

The emerging European economies have been converging rapidly towards the more advanced European economies in recent years. However, large external imbalances in parts of the region have raised questions about sustainability and concerns about vulnerabilities. Empirical evidence in this paper suggest that the convergence trend of emerging Europe is based on strong fundamentals and is expected to continue, but at a slower pace. Moreover, the convergence path may be volatile as countries with large external imbalances adjust, with risks of a hard landing in some cases.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/181.

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Length: 300 pages
Date of creation: 21 Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/181

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Related research
Keywords: Europe ; Emerging markets ; Transition economies ; Balance of payments ; Economic growth ; Current account balances ; External debt ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union: Equilibrium, Excess, and EU-Phoria," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ashoka Mody & Abdul Abiad & Daniel Leigh & Susan Schadler, 2007. "Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union," IMF Occasional Papers 252, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Inci Ötker & Gudrun Johnsen & Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 2005. "Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 05/151, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2002-2), pages 147-210. [Downloadable!]
  6. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Yi Wu & Elina Ribakova & Dimitri G. Demekas & Balázs Horváth, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment in Southeastern Europe: How (and How Much) Can Policies Help?," IMF Working Papers 05/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hamid Faruqee & Martin Fetherston & Peter Isard & G. Russell Kincaid, 2001. "Methodology for Current Account and Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers 209, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1997. "Sharp Reductions in Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Analysis," IMF Working Papers 97/168, International Monetary Fund.
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  10. David Moore & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2008. "Economic Growth in Croatia: Potential and Constraints," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(1), pages 1-28. [Downloadable!]
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