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Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability

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Author Info

  • Martin Cihák
  • Ales Bulir
  • Sofía Bauducco

Abstract

This paper contributes to the analysis of monetary policy in the face of financial instability. In particular, we extend the standard new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices to include a financial system. Our simulations suggest that if financial instability affects output and inflation with a lag and if the central bank has privileged information about credit risk, monetary policy that responds instantly to increased credit risk can trade off more output and inflation instability today for a faster return to the trend than a policy that follows the simple Taylor rule with only the contemporaneous output gap and inflation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/18.

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Length: 41
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/18

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Related research

Keywords: Credit risk; Financial stability; central bank; monetary policy; financial instability; inflation; financial sector; financial system; financial intermediaries; deposit rate; financial institutions; monetary fund; monetary policy rule; aggregate demand; monetary dynamic; monetary stance; discount rate; deposit rates; financial intermediation; monetary policy objectives; inflation-targeting; national bank; moral hazard; monetary regime; monetary transmission; bond market; bond; nominal interest rate; financial sector problems; financial systems; monetary policy instruments; monetary economics; monetary policy decisions;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Lianfi Li, 2005. "Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter for Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 11830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
  4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgment in Monetary Policy through Targeting Rules," NBER Working Papers 9421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
  6. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  7. Berger, Allen N & Davies, Sally M & Flannery, Mark J, 2000. "Comparing Market and Supervisory Assessments of Bank Performance: Who Knows What When?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 641-67, August.
  8. Boorman, Jack & Lane, Timothy & Schulze-Ghattas, Marianne & Bulir, Ales & Ghosh, Atish R. & Hamann, Javier & Mourmouras, Alex & Phillips, Steven, 2000. "Managing financial crises: the experience in East Asia," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 1-67, December.
  9. Brousseau, Vincent & Detken, Carsten, 2001. "Monetary policy and fears of financial instability," Working Paper Series 0089, European Central Bank.
  10. Jordi Gali, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 8767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  12. Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  13. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2006. "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century," BIS Working Papers 216, Bank for International Settlements.
  14. Bordo, Michael D & Jeanne, Olivier, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claudiu Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Post-Print halshs-00943753, HAL.
  2. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy: A Reduced-Form Model for the EURO Area," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 62-81, March.
  3. Martin, Christopher & Milas, Costas, 2013. "Financial crises and monetary policy: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 654-661.
  4. Jaromír Baxa & Roman Horváth & Borek Vasícek, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules and Financial Stress: Does Financial Instability Matter for Monetary," Working Papers wpdea1101, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
  5. Leonardo Luna & Dale F. Gray & Jorge Restrepo & Carlos Garcia, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models," IMF Working Papers 11/228, International Monetary Fund.

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