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Do the Gulf Oil-Producing Countries Influence Regional Growth? the Impact of Financial and Remittance Flows

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Author Info
Nadeem Ilahi
Riham Shendy
Abstract

This paper tests the association between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' financial and remittance outflows and regional growth in the Middle East. The findings, based on 35-year panel data, indicate that growth rates of real GDP, private consumption and private investment in regional countries are strongly associated with remittance outflows from and the accumulation of financial surpluses in the GCC. Unlike in other developing and emerging market countries, growth in regional countries is not influenced by growth in the North, and is not export led. Linkages with the GCC could help sustain output growth in the regional countries in the face of the global economic slowdown and oil price shocks and could provide diversification gains to international capital seeking markets uncorrelated with Northern and emerging market countries.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/167.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 09 Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/167

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Keywords: Middle East ; Oil producing countries ; Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf ; Economic growth ; Capital flows ; Gross domestic product ; Private consumption ; Private investment ; Outward remittances ; Regional shocks ; Oil prices ; Capital markets ; Business cycles ; Emerging markets ;

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