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Vacation Over

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  • Rafael Romeu
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    Abstract

    An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean''s tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/162.

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    Length: 62
    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/162

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    Related research

    Keywords: Trade; Tourism; Bilateral trade; Forecasting models; tourists; tourist; tourist arrivals; travel costs; cultural distance; hotel rooms; tourism industry; tourism trade; free trade agreements; european tourists; tourism services; world tourism; world tourism organization; tourism growth; tourism destinations; tourism research; cruise passengers; number of tourists; tourist destinations; tourism organization; destination countries; tourism sector; regional tourism; cruise ship; tourism destination; tourism service; tourist demand; international tourist arrivals; development of tourism; new hotel rooms; destination country; importance of tourism; international tourist; tourist presence; tourism consumer; tourism vacation; destination preferences; luxury hotels; sustainable tourism; tourist destination; national culture; air travel; tourism policy; tourism consumption; tourism market;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Yang Dean, 2008. "Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970-2002," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-45, June.
    2. Cukierman, Alex, 1980. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(3), pages 462-75, June.
    3. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2005. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," CEPR Discussion Papers 5122, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rafael Romeu, 2005. "Why Are Asset Markets Modeled Successfully, But Not Their Dealers?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1.
    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:
    1. Evridiki Tsounta, 2008. "What Attracts tourists to Paradise?," IMF Working Papers 08/277, International Monetary Fund.

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