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Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?

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Author Info
M. Ayhan Kose
Christopher Otrok
Eswar Prasad

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Abstract

This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/143.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: 25 Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/143

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Globalization ; Developed countries ; Developing countries ; Spillovers ; Economic conditions ; Economic integration ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2008. "The Contribution Of Domestic, Regional And International Factors To Latin America'S Business Cycle," CAMA Working Papers 2008-33, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Papaioannou, Elias & Peydró-Alcalde, José Luis, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 7292, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens & Marco Terrones, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ansgar Belke & Andreas Rees, 2009. "The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policy Makers - Rising Challenges for Central Banks," Ruhr Economic Papers 0135, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José Luis Peydró, 2009. "Financial Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization," NBER Working Papers 14887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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