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Much Ado About Nothing? Estimating the Impact of a U.S. Slowdown on Thai Growth

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Author Info

  • Shekhar Aiyar
  • Ivan Tchakarov

Abstract

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to the US has fallen in recent years, the US remains Thailand's largest export destination. We use a small structural model and Bayesian estimation to assess the possible impact of a U.S. slowdown on Thai growth. We find that a 1 percent slowdown in U.S. growth in 2008-relative to the baseline forecast-could have an upper-bound impact on Thai GDP growth of 0.9 percentage points.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/140.

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Length: 18
Date of creation: 01 May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/140

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Related research

Keywords: Thailand; Economic growth; Economic forecasting;

References

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  1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Douglas Laxton & Andrew Berg & Philippe D Karam, 2006. "Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis--A How-To Guide," IMF Working Papers 06/81, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Ben Hunt, 2005. "Oil Price Shocks: Can They Account for the Stagflation in the 1970s?," IMF Working Papers 05/215, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Wojciech Maliszewski, 2010. "Vietnam: Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap," IMF Working Papers 10/149, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Chayawadee Chai-anant & Runchana Pongsaparn & Kessarin Tansuwanarat, 2008. "Roles of Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: A Case Study for Thailand," Working Papers 2008-03, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.

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