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Fiscal Positions in Latin America

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  • Jeromin Zettelmeyer
  • Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

Abstract

Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/137.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/137

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Keywords: Revenues; Taxes; Commodity prices; Latin America; Revenue sources; Tax revenues; Commodity markets; tax structure; tax system; tax revenue; tax administration; tax reform; structural fiscal; fiscal balances; vat rate; tax base; fiscal positions; central government tax; fiscal improvements; tax evasion; taxation; fiscal balance; corporate income tax; fiscal policy; government revenue; expenditure growth; central government tax revenues; tax policy; personal income tax; fiscal data; fiscal regimes; revenue elasticity; tax breaks; export taxes; tax systems; tax reforms; tax ratio; tax bases; fiscal developments; marginal tax rate; fiscal stance; government tax revenue; tax change; tax rate reductions; tax incentives; tax authorities; fiscal position; fiscal performance; sales tax; tax measures; fiscal incentives; structural budget balance; structural adjustment; payroll tax; excise taxes; fiscal package; expenditure ratios; expenditure restraint; fiscal aggregates; tax liabilities; fiscal standpoint; tax credit; tariff rate; tax administration measures; taxable income; fiscal policies; fiscal impact; indirect tax; fiscal cost; reduction in government spending; tax deductions; income tax deductions; fiscal regime; tax office; public sector expenditures; consumption tax; budget balance; personal income tax rate; public debt; major tax reform; fiscal stabilization; tax exemptions; tax rates; interest payments; expenditure ratio; budget rigidities; fiscal deficit; reduction in tax; fiscal adjustment; vat structure; capital stock; government spending;

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References

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  1. Victor Duarte Lledo, 2005. "Tax Systems Under Fiscal Adjustment," IMF Working Papers 05/142, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Dean Corbae & Sam Ouliaris & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Band Spectral Regression with Trending Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1163, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Nigel Andrew Chalk, 2002. "Structural Balances and All That," IMF Working Papers 02/101, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
  5. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, . "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," Borradores de Economia 434, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Enrique Alberola & Manuel Montero, 2006. "Debt Sustainability and Procyclical Fiscal Policies in Latin America," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  8. Robert P. Hagemann, 1999. "The Structural Budget Balance," IMF Working Papers 99/95, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Luiz de Mello & Diego Moccero, 2006. "Brazil's Fiscal Stance during 1995-2005: The Effect of Indebtedness on Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 485, OECD Publishing.
  10. Marcel, Mario, 2001. "Balance Estructural del Gobierno Central. Metodología y Estimaciones para Chile
    [Structural Bazlance of Central Government. Methodology and estimates for Chile]
    ," MPRA Paper 43338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2011. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and sustainable?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 5(14), pages 1-29.
  2. Sergey Vlasov, 2011. "Russian Fiscal Framework Past, Present and Future.Do we Need a Change?," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(64), pages 35-81, October -.

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