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Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade

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Author Info
Yoko Oguro
Kyoji Fukao
Yougesh Khatri

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Abstract

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates export sensitivity to exchange rates in the context of intra-industry trade (IIT). It is assumed that more IIT implies a smaller elasticity of substitution among differentiated products and vice versa. The model presented suggests the gap in production costs between two countries has an influence on IIT as well. Industry-level pane regressions of thirty-eight trading pairs provide strong empirical support for the idea that the exchange rate sensitivity of exports declines in concert with the extent of ITT. An obvious policy implication is that the effectiveness of exchange rates in addressing trade imbalances will diminish as the extent of IIT increases.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/134.

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Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 27 May 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/134

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Keywords: Working Paper ; India ; Globalization ; Monetary policy ; Capital inflows ; Economic conditions ; Liquidity management ;

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  1. Fukao, Kyoji & Ishido, Hikari & Ito, Keiko, 2003. "Vertical intra-industry trade and foreign direct investment in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 468-506, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 451-469, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Eaton Jonathan & Tamura Akiko, 1994. "Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 478-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Yoko Oguro, 2007. "The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on Export Sensitivity to Exchange Rates," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-222, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Clements, Leianne A., 2003. "The commodity composition of US-Japanese trade and the yen/dollar real exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 307-330, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Brander, James & Krugman, Paul, 1983. "A 'reciprocal dumping' model of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 313-321, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Cushman, David O, 1990. "U.S. Bilateral Trade Equations: Forecasts and Structural Stability," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 22(8), pages 1093-1102, August.
  11. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Goswami, Gour Gobinda, 2004. "Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan's bilateral trade flows," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Greenaway, David & Hine, Robert C & Milner, Chris, 1995. "Vertical and Horizontal Intra-industry Trade: A Cross Industry Analysis for the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1505-18, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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