Emerging Market Spread Compression
AbstractDespite recent turmoil, spreads on emerging market countries'' sovereign bonds have fallen dramatically since mid-2002. Some have attributed the fall to improved economic fundamentals while others to ample global liquidity. The paper models spreads and attempts to empirically distinguish between the two factors. The results indicate that fundamentals, as embedded in credit ratings, are very important, but that expectations of future U.S. interest rates and volatility in those expectations are also a key determinant of emerging market spreads.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 08/10.
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-03-01 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sy, Amadou N. R., 2002. "Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 380-408, December.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003.
"The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion,"
NBER Working Papers
10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001.
"Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Reisen, Helmut, 2002.
"Ratings since the Asian Crisis,"
Working Paper Series
UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2004.
"When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,"
NBER Working Papers
10780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2004. "When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies," MPRA Paper 13883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Torsten Sløk & Mike Kennedy, 2004. "Factors Driving Risk Premia," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 385, OECD Publishing.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
- Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
- Kennedy, Mike & Palerm, Angel, 2014. "Emerging market bond spreads: The role of global and domestic factors from 2002 to 2011," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 70-87.
- Ercio Muñoz S., 2013.
"Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?,"
Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy),
Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 100-121, April.
- Ercio Muñoz, 2013. "Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 684, Central Bank of Chile.
- Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
- Delatte, Anne-Laure & Gex, Mathieu & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 481-497.
- Wang, Yi-Hsien & Lee, Jun-De, 2012. "Estimating the import demand function for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2591-2596.
- Nazim Belhocine & Salvatore Dell'Erba, 2013. "The Impact of Debt Sustainability and the Level of Debt on Emerging Markets Spreads," IMF Working Papers 13/93, International Monetary Fund.
- Gozgor, Giray, 2014. "Determinants of domestic credit levels in emerging markets: The role of external factors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-18.
- LuÃs BrandÃ£o Marques & Gaston Gelos & Natalia Melgar, 2013. "Country Transparency and the Global Transmission of Financial Shocks," IMF Working Papers 13/156, International Monetary Fund.
- Wang, Alan T. & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2013. "Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors – The case of Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 586-601.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.