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The Effect of Capital Controls on Foreign Direct Investment Decisions Under Country Risk with Intangible Assets

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Author Info
Kinga Z. Elo
Abstract

This paper examines how capital controls affect FDI decisions and how the impact of these restrictive measures varies with different levels of country risk. We construct a model of firms' FDI decisions, broadly in Dunning's "eclectic theory" framework, using "real options" to emphasize economic uncertainty and country risk. Numerical results of the model take the form of "quality statistics" that uncover the underlying dynamics hidden in the aggregate data that is responsible for the low performance of recent empirical studies. We find that increasing levels of capital controls reduce the life-span of FDI investments at each level of country risk and foreign investors' willingness towards risk sharing increases. We reveal a significant interaction between capital control and country risk, resulting in a nonlinear relationship between these and the volatility and volume statistics. We estimate a standard cross-sectional model that provides strong support for our theoretical findings.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/79.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 05 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/79

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Keywords: Foreign investment ; Capital controls ; Credit risk ;

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  8. Albuquerque, Rui, 2003. "The composition of international capital flows: risk sharing through foreign direct investment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 353-383, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Black, Fischer, 1974. "International capital market equilibrium with investment barriers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 337-352, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1978. "Capital controls, political risk and interest disparities," International Finance Discussion Papers 125, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P. & Marion, Nancy P., 1993. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 207-210. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ricardo Hausmann & Eduardo Fernández-Arias, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?," RES Working Papers 4203, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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