Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources

Contents:

Author Info

  • Atish R. Ghosh
  • Juan Zalduendo
  • Manuela Goretti
  • Bikas Joshi
  • Alun H. Thomas

Abstract

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=20605
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/70.

as in new window
Length: 44
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/70

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

Related research

Keywords: Credit; Fund financial position; Forecasting models; Economic models; probability; time series; external debt; imf credit outstanding; balance of payments; prediction; short-term debt; current account; repurchases; forecasting; current account balance; time series analysis; equation; survey; debt ratio; statistics; statistic; equations; probabilities; current account deficit; debt crisis; econometrics; standard deviation; logarithm; probability density function; nonlinearity; total external debt; sample selection; confidence intervals; explanatory power; probability density; crisis countries; linear time; independent variables; dummy variable; regression analysis; public external debt; debt service; reserve assets; predictions; descriptive statistics; debt ratios; confidence interval; law of large numbers; estimation period; debt sustainability; extrapolations; debt rescheduling; normal distribution; standard error; central bank; dummy variables; balance of payment; statistical inference; debt problems; correlation; cross section analysis; public finances; debt sustainability analyses; extrapolation; lagrange multiplier test; imf purchases; external debt service; pooled time series; supply ? equations; independent variable; nonlinear model; number of variables; linear model; stochastic process; projection period; binary choice; significance levels; external financing; discriminant analysis; maximum likelihood estimation; variance analysis; statistical inferences; credit tranche; probability distribution; reserve accumulation; international lending;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
  2. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "Assessing Early Warning Systems," IMF Working Papers 04/52, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Silvia Marchesi, 2001. "Adoption of an IMF Programme and Debt Rescheduling. An Empirical Analysis," Development Working Papers 152, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  4. Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Berger, Helge & de Haan, Jakob, 2004. "Which variables explain decisions on IMF credit? An extreme bounds analysis," Discussion Papers 2004/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  5. Ayşe Y Evrensel, 2005. "IMF Programmes in Emerging Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(1), pages 4-22, March.
  6. Julio A. Santaella, 1996. "Stylized Facts before IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Adjustment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(3), pages 502-544, September.
  7. Robert J Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2003. "IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," Departmental Working Papers 2003-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  8. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2000. "The Scientific Contributions of James Heckman and Daniel McFadden," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2000-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
  9. Axel Dreher & Roland Vaubel, 2004. "Do IMF and IBRD Cause Moral Hazard and Political Business Cycles? Evidence from Panel Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 5-22, January.
  10. Charalambos Christofides & Atish R. Ghosh & Uma Ramakrishnan & Alun H. Thomas & Laura Papi & Juan Zalduendo & Jun Il Kim, 2005. "The Design of IMF-Supported Programs," IMF Occasional Papers 241, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Joyce, Joseph P., 1992. "The economic characteristics of IMF program countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 237-242, February.
  12. Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2, Spring.
  13. Arturo Estrella, 1997. "A new measure of fit for equations with dichotomous dependent variables," Research Paper 9716, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
  15. Bird, Graham & Hussain, Mumtaz & Joyce, Joseph P., 2004. "Many happy returns? Recidivism and the IMF," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 231-251, March.
  16. Robert Trudel, 2005. "Effects of Exchange Rate Regime on IMF Program Participation," Review of Policy Research, Policy Studies Organization, vol. 22(6), pages 919-936, November.
  17. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August.
  18. Eugenio Cerutti, 2007. "Imf Drawing Programs," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Filardo, Andrew J. & Gordon, Stephen F., 1998. "Business cycle durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 99-123, July.
  20. Dubin, Jeffrey A & McFadden, Daniel L, 1984. "An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 345-62, March.
  21. Knight, Malcolm & Santaella, Julio A., 1997. "Economic determinants of IMF financial arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 405-436, December.
  22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  23. Poirier, Dale J., 1980. "Partial observability in bivariate probit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 209-217, February.
  24. Dolton, P. J. & Makepeace, G. H., 1987. "Interpreting sample selection effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 373-379.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Eugenio Cerutti, 2007. "Imf Drawing Programs," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Andrea F. Presbitero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2010. "IMF Lending in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in the Wake of the Global Crisis," Development Working Papers 305, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  3. Yasemin Bal-Gunduz, 2009. "Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks," IMF Working Papers 09/263, International Monetary Fund.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/70. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jim Beardow) or (Hassan Zaidi).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.