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Modeling Aggregate Use of Fund Resources--Analytical Approaches and Medium-Term Projections

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Author Info
Juan Zalduendo
Manuela Goretti
Bikas Joshi
Atish R. Ghosh
Alun H. Thomas

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Abstract

This paper presents two approaches to modeling the use of IMF resources in order to gauge whether the recent decline in credit outstanding is a temporary or a permanent phenomenon. The two approaches-the time series behavior of credit outstanding and a two-stage program selection and access model-yield the same conclusion: the use of IMF resources is likely to decline sharply. Specifically, credit outstanding is projected to decline from an average of SDR 50 billion over 2000?05 to SDR 8 billion over 2006?10. Stochastic simulations suggest that it is unlikely to be much higher. These results are based on WEO projections with a correction for historically-observed over-optimistic biases. Alternative scenarios assuming a weaker economic performance or a less benign global environment do not alter these results.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/70.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 02 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/70

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Keywords: Stand-by arrangements Credit Loans Fund financial position Forecasting models Economic models

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  8. Przeworski, Adam & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2000. "The effect of IMF programs on economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 385-421, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Ayşe Y Evrensel, 2005. "IMF Programmes in Emerging Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 4-22, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Dolton, P. J. & Makepeace, G. H., 1987. "Interpreting sample selection effects," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 373-379. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eugenio Cerutti, 2007. "IMF Drawing Programs: Participation Determinants and Forecasting," IMF Working Papers 07/152, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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