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Do Economists' and Financial Markets' Perspectives on the New Members of the EU Differ?

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Author Info
Pipat Luengnaruemitchai
Susan Schadler

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Abstract

In the past several years, the ten new Central and Eastern European members of the European Union have enjoyed rapid growth but frequently alongside growing external imbalances. Economists have pointed to rising vulnerabilities, but markets compressed sovereign bond yields. This paper examines the evidence from the perspective of economists' vulnerability analysis and markets' pricing of sovereign bonds. It finds that spread are lower than can be explained by "fundamentals" and speculates on the causes and permanence of this yield compression.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/65.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 22 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/65

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Related research
Keywords: New Member States ; Emerging Markets ; Sovereign Spreads ; Emerging markets ; European Union ; Economic growth ; Bonds ; Prices ; Capital markets ;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David Hauner & Jirí Jonáš & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2007. "Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit--The Case of New EU Member States," IMF Working Papers 07/1, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-136 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June. [Downloadable!]
  5. Martín González Rozada & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads," RES Working Papers 4445, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Martin Cihák & Wim Fonteyne, 2009. "Five Years After: European Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States," IMF Working Papers 09/68, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. David Büttner & Bernd Hayo, 2008. "EMU-related News and Financial Markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200815, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung). [Downloadable!]
  3. Andrea M. Maechler & Bas Berend Bakker & Christoph Duenwald & Piritta Sorsa & Andrew Tiffin, 2007. "Vulnerabilities in Emerging Southeastern Europe--How Much Cause for Concern?," IMF Working Papers 07/236, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2008. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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