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The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints

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Author Info
Simon Johnson
Jonathan David Ostry
Arvind Subramanian

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Abstract

A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate potential constraints on sustained growth for sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis suggests that what are usually regarded as first-order problems-broad institutions, macroeconomic stability, trade openness, education, and inequality-may not now be binding constraints in Africa, although the extent of ill-health, internal conflict, and societal fractionalization do stand out as problems in contemporary Africa. A key question is to what extent Africa can rely on manufactured exports as a mode of "escape from underdevelopment," a strategy successfully deployed by almost all the benchmark countries. The benchmarking comparison specifically raises two key concerns as far as a development strategy based on expanding exports of manufactures is concerned: micro-level institutions that affect the costs of exporting, and the level of the real exchange rate-especially the need to avoid overvaluation.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/52.

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Length: 57 pages
Date of creation: 08 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/52

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Keywords: Sustained growth ; Africa ; constraints ; benchmark ; Economic growth ; Africa ; Trade liberalization ; Imports ; Exports ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Fischer, Stanley & Hernandez-Cata, Ernesto, 1998. "Africa - Is This the Turning Point?," IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments 98/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2006. "Empirics of hills, plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 357-385, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864, August.
  4. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. " Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Richard B. Freeman & David L. Lindauer, 1999. "Why Not Africa?," NBER Working Papers 6942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
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  8. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 2003. " Fractionalization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2006. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 12269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Competitive Rent Preservation, Reform Paralysis, and the Persistence of Underdevelopment," NBER Working Papers 12093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," NBER Working Papers 11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2002. "Institutional Causes, Macroeconomic Symptoms: Volatility, Crises and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 3575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Fearon, James D, 2003. " Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 195-222, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. repec:rus:hseeco:123147 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Hausmann, Ricardo & Pritchett, Lant & Rodrik, Dani, 2004. "Growth Accelerations," CEPR Discussion Papers 4538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Aaditya Mattoo & Devesh Roy & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and its Rules of Origin: Generosity Undermined?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(6), pages 829-851, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  19. Stanley Fischer & Ernesto Hernández-Catá & Mohsin S. Khan, 1998. "Africa - Is This the Turning Point?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 98/6, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," IZA Discussion Papers 3475, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2009. "A tendência à sobreapreciação da taxa de câmbio," Textos para discussão 183, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  4. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism and the Learning by Doing Externality," NBER Working Papers 13853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Subramanian, Arvind, 2009. "The Mauritian Success Story and its Lessons," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  6. Juan Zalduendo, 2008. "Bivariate Assessments of Real Exchange Rates Using PPP Data," IMF Working Papers 08/153, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2009. "The Real Exchange Rate as an Instrument of Development Policy," Working Papers 2009-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ildiko Magyari, 2008. "Exploring the Correlation between Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth in the CEE Countries," Advances in Economic and Financial Research - DOFIN Working Paper Series 16, Bucharest University of Economics, Center for Advanced Research in Finance and Banking - CARFIB. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jonathan David Ostry & Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Andrew Berg, 2007. "What Makes Growth Sustained?," IMF Working Papers 08/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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