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External Linkages and Contagion Risk in Irish Banks

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  • Srobona Mitra
  • Elena Duggar
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    Abstract

    The large and growing international linkages of big Irish banks expose them to idiosyncratic shocks arising in other countries. We analyze international interdependencies of Irish banks-during both normal times and in periods of large shocks or extreme events-using an existing methodology with distance to default (DD) data constructed from the banks' equity prices. The data covers daily observations from January 1994 to November 2005. We first construct rolling correlations between DDs of Irish banks and those of banks from other European countries and the U.S. to analyze trends in cross-country interdependencies. We then use a multinomial logit model to estimate the number of banks in Ireland that experience a large shock on the same day as banks in other countries ("coexceedances"), controlling for Ireland-specific and global factors. We find evidence of increasing cross-border interdependencies over time; differing interlinkage patterns in the pre-Euro, post-Euro, and the post-September 11th periods; and significant cross-border contagion risk from the United Kingdom, the United States, and the Netherlands. This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/44.

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    Length: 38
    Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/44

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    Related research

    Keywords: Banking; Risk management; Economic models;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Gianni De Nicoló & Alexander F. Tieman, 2006. "Economic Integration and Financial Stability: A European Perspective," IMF Working Papers 06/296, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
    3. Gianni De Nicoló & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation: Are they Related?," IMF Working Papers 02/55, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-38, August.
    5. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
    6. De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
    7. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 1998. "Financial Contagion Journal of Political Economy," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 98-31, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    8. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2001. "Causes of U.S. bank distress during the depression," Proceedings 714, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    10. Arnaud Jobert & Janet Kong & Jorge A. Chan-Lau, 2004. "An Option-Based Approach to Bank Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 04/33, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Kimie Harada & Takatoshi Ito, 2008. "Did Mergers Help Japanese Mega-Banks Avoid Failure? Analysis of the Distance to Default of Banks," NBER Working Papers 14518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daniel Kanda, 2008. "Spillovers to Ireland," IMF Working Papers 08/2, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Martín Saldías, 2012. "Systemic Risk Analysis using Forward-Looking Distance-to-Default Series," Working Papers w201216, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Jorge A. Chan-Lau & Srobona Mitra & Li L. Ong, 2007. "Contagion Risk in the International Banking System and Implications for London as a Global Financial Center," IMF Working Papers 07/74, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Harada, Kimie & Ito, Takatoshi & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2013. "Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 70-82.

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