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Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in Japan

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Author Info

  • Dennis P. J. Botman
  • Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye
  • Hali J. Edison

Abstract

Japan''s key fiscal challenge is to put public finances on a more sustainable footing. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies for Japan using the IMF''s Global Fiscal Model. The results suggest that: (i) an adjustment package that achieves primary balance through lower social transfers and government spending and a higher VAT is the most viable option and has a smaller negative impact on growth than other fiscal measures; (ii) achieving primary balance is not sufficient to stabilize the net debt ratio; (iii) prefunding future aging costs provides greater long-term benefits compared with less front-loaded strategies; (iv) tax reform involving shifting from corporate taxation to consumption taxation could mitigate the short-term output losses associated with fiscal consolidation; and (v) the spillovers to the rest of the world from consolidation in Japan are positive in the medium term, but modest.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/37.

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Length: 22
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/37

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Keywords: Aging; Debt sustainability; Tax reforms; Adjustment policy; Public finance; Economic models; tax reform; taxation; consumption tax; government spending; fiscal policy; fiscal adjustment; corporate income tax; fiscal consolidation; income taxes; tax rates; tax increases; budget constraint; vat rate; indirect taxation; fiscal model; fiscal strategies; payroll tax; personal income tax; tax increase; home country; public debt; corporate income taxes; personal income taxes; corporate income taxation; tax base; expenditure cuts; aggregate demand; fiscal policies; corporate taxes; government budget; capital accumulation; benefits of tax reform; tax burden; public finances; tax system; tax policy; consumption taxes; reduction in government spending; capital spending; lump-sum tax; average tax rate; direct taxation; fiscal variables; fiscal policy on consumption; capital investment; budget deficits; revenue adjustment; tax distortions; fiscal structure; government expenditures; government budget constraint; higher interest rates; government budget deficits; income tax rates; government expenditure; fiscal debate; capital stock; tax measures; fiscal balance; sales tax; fiscal measures;

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References

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  1. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March.
  2. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye, 2005. "The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/209, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April.
  4. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido, 2003. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Working Papers 73, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-97, August.
  6. Tamim Bayoumi & Dennis P. J. Botman & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2005. "Macroeconomic Effects of Social Security and Tax Reform in the United States," IMF Working Papers 05/208, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Roberto Perotti, 2004. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries," Working Papers 276, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 10988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November.
  10. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Manmohan S. Kumar & Dennis P. J. Botman, 2006. "Fundamental Determinants of the Effects of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 06/72, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
  13. Dennis P. J. Botman & Keiko Honjo, 2006. "Options for Fiscal Consolidation in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 06/89, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Dirk Muir & Douglas Laxton & Dennis P. J. Botman & Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Murtaza H. Syed & Michael Skaarup & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2008. "Addressing Korea's Long-Term Fiscal Challenges," IMF Working Papers 08/27, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Mihai Dragu, 2011. "Possible Means And Solutions For Avoiding Currency Wars," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(39), pages 211-216.

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