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Modeling Inflation for Mali

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  • Mame Astou Diouf

Abstract

This paper investigates how consumer price inflation is determined in Mali for 1979-2006 along three macroeconomic explanations: (1) monetarist theories, emphasizing the impact of excess money supply, (2) the structuralist hypothesis, stressing the impact of supply-side constraints, and (3) external theories, describing the effects of foreign transmission mechanisms on a small open economy. The analysis makes use of cointegration techniques and general-to-specific modeling. Average national rainfall, and to a lesser extent deviations from monetary and external sector equilibrium are found to be the main long-run determinants of inflation. The paper offers policy recommendations for controlling inflation in Mali.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/295.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/295

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Keywords: Real effective exchange rates; inflation; price inflation; terms of trade; money market; money demand; money supply; demand for money; monetary fund; monetary policy; rate of inflation; discount rate; inflation equation; inflation rate; foreign currency; money balances; price level; annual inflation; monetary sector; real money; money stock; inflationary pressures; monetary phenomenon; monetary factors; inflationary impact; price stability; foreign exchange; monetary union; monetary growth; high inflation; lower inflation; monetary disturbances; relative price; low inflation; relative prices; discount rate increase; average inflation; rates of inflation; inflation targeting; effective exchange rates; quantity theory; forecasting inflation; inflation process; monetary aggregates; inflationary shock; inflation dynamics; central bank; inflation money; annual inflation rate;

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  1. Neil R. Ericsson, 1998. "Empirical modeling of money demand," Empirical Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 295-315.
  2. Gary G. Moser, 1994. "The Main Determinants of Inflation in Nigeria," IMF Working Papers 94/76, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Jayne, Thomas S. & Mukumbu, Mulinge & Duncan, John & Staatz, John M. & Howard, Julie A. & Lundberg, Mattias K.A. & Aldridge, Kim & Nakaponda, Bethel & Ferris, John N. & Keita, Francis & Sanankoua, Abd, 1996. "Trends in Real Food Prices in Six Sub-Saharan African Countries," Food Security International Development Working Papers, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics 54695, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  5. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2001. "Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Inflation in Uganda," IMF Working Papers 01/118, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Mohsin S. Khan & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Inflation in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 06/60, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Birru, Yohannes A., 2010. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics 478, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 03 Jun 2013.

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