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High Growth and Low Consumption in East Asia

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  • Céline Rochon
  • Andrew Feltenstein
  • Maral Shamloo

Abstract

This paper analyzes certain policies that are typical of a number of rapidly growing East Asian countries in which a fixed exchange rate, combined with a surplus labor market, has made domestic assets relatively inexpensive, generating high rates of FDI as well as domestic capital formation. This "investment hunger" can lead to unanticipated declines in the returns to investment, and resulting financial insolvencies. Private consumption remains low and there are concerns that high savings rates cannot be sustained. We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model and apply it to a stylized Asian economy, loosely based upon China. We calibrate a benchmark equilibrium, and carry out various counterfactual simulations to analyze alternative policies, in particular tax cuts and exchange rate revaluations, as instruments in increasing private consumption while avoiding bank failures.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/278.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/278

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Related research

Keywords: Economic growth; Exchange rates; Labor markets; fdi; direct investment; foreign direct investment; real interest rates; investors; foreign currency; domestic investment; foreign investor; rate of return; foreign investors; nominal interest rates; rates of return; multinational firms; nominal value; foreign assets; tax rate; foreign investment; nominal capital; investment decisions; international standards; foreign asset; private capital; international trade; investor protection; outstanding debt; host country; foreign affiliate; host-country; foreign invested enterprises; investment decision;

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References

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  1. WHALLEY, John & XIN, Xian, 2010. "China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-135, March.
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  3. Ball, Sheryl & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2001. "Bank failures and fiscal austerity: policy prescriptions for a developing country," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 247-270, November.
  4. Philip R. Lane & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2006. "The international financial integration of China and India," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  5. repec:rus:hseeco:122512 is not listed on IDEAS
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  12. Blonigen, Bruce A, 1997. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 447-65, June.
  13. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond J. Mataloni & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Expansion Strategies of U.S. Multinational Firms," BEA Papers 0012, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  14. James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 1999. "Multinational Firms: Reconciling Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1992. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," NBER Working Papers 2914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Blejer, Mario I. & Feldman, Ernesto V. & Feltenstein, Andrew, 2002. "Exogenous shocks, contagion, and bank soundness: a macroeconomic framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 33-52, February.
  17. Andrew Feltenstein & Saleh M. Nsouli, 2003. ""Big Bang" Versus Gradualism in Economic Reforms: An Intertemporal Analysis with an Application to China," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(3), pages 6.
  18. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Egger, Peter, 2007. "A knowledge-and-physical-capital model of international trade flows, foreign direct investment, and multinational enterprises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 278-308, November.
  19. Zhang, Kevin Honglin & Song, Shunfeng, 2001. "Promoting exports: the role of inward FDI in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 385-396.
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