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The Optimal Level of Foreign Reserves in Financially Dollarized Economies: The Case of Uruguay

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Author Info
Fernando M. Goncalves

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Abstract

This paper extends the framework derived by Jeanne and Rancière (2006) by explicitly incorporating the dollarization of bank deposits into the analysis of the optimal level of foreign reserves for prudential purposes. In the extended model, a sudden stop in capital flows occurs in tandem with a run on dollar deposits. Reserves can smooth consumption in a crisis but are costly to carry. The resulting expression for the optimal level of reserves is calibrated for Uruguay, a country with high dollarization of bank deposits. The baseline calibration indicates that the gap between actual and optimal reserves has declined sharply since the 2002 crisis due to a substantial reduction in vulnerabilities. While the results suggest that reserves are now near optimal levels, further accumulation may be desirable going forward, partly because banks' currently high liquidity levels are likely to decline as the credit recovery matures.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/265.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 29 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/265

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Related research
Keywords: Foreign exchange reserves ; Uruguay ; Dollarization ; Financial crisis ; Crisis prevention ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: Cited by:
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  1. Wendell A. Samuel & Mario Dehesa & Emilio Pineda, 2009. "Optimal Reserves in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/77, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Milan Zavadjil, 2008. "Are Emerging Asia’s Reserves Really Too High?," IMF Working Papers 08/192, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-17.


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