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Effect of IMF Structural Adjustment Programson Expectations

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Author Info

  • Patrick A. Imam

Abstract

We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents'' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in contrast, have looked at indirect measures, such as capital flows or yield spreads, to assess the impact of IMF programs on economic expectations. Using a multinomial probit model, we find that IMF loans appear to have a strong effect on agent expectations in the early years, through the inflow of real money, and through the signaling effect. IMF programs during periods of collapsing growth appear to reinforce underlying expectations for the future; they are associated with positive expectations for those with an optimistic outlook and negative expectations for those with a negative outlook. Once recovery is underway, and economic uncertainty diminishes, it appears that IMF programs cease to have a statistically significant effect on the expectations of economic agents. This suggests that IMF programs have the biggest impact on expectations during periods of great uncertainty and less of an impact when countries are subject to minor shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/261.

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Length: 30
Date of creation: 01 Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/261

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Related research

Keywords: Structural adjustment; Transition economies; Capital flows; inflation; survey; surveys; probability; statistically significant effect; forecasting; statistics; probabilities; dummy variable; adaptive expectations; financial statistics; quantity theory of money; rational expectations; significance level; quantity theory; real money; standard errors; stochastic process; cumulative distribution function; regression analysis; independent variables; effect of inflation; foreign exchange; equation; random sample; statistical significance; rising inflation; monetary dynamics; normal distribution; binomial distribution; probability theory; probability distributions; macroeconomic performance; correlation; cluster analysis; random errors;

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Cited by:
  1. Garabed Minassian, 2008. "Is the Bulgarian Economy Overheating?," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-29.
  2. Garabed Minassian, 2008. "Is Bulgarian Economy Overheating?," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 21-46.
  3. Yeboah Asuamah Samuel & Kumi Ernest & Kwarteng Ernest, 2012. "Empirical Assessment of Expectations Associated with the Recent Discovery of Commercialisable Oil in Ghana," International Review of Management and Marketing, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 177-191.

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