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Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland

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  • Dora M. Iakova
  • Dennis P. J. Botman
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    Abstract

    The projected rise in age-related government spending as a share of GDP in Ireland over the next forty years is among the highest in the euro area. In the absence of reforms, public debt will increase to unsustainable levels. This paper uses the IMF''s Global Fiscal Model to compare the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal strategies to accommodate the rise in age-related spending. The simulations suggest that adopting a package of measures, including an increase in the retirement age, broadening the tax base, and raising indirect taxes, would be a more growth-friendly strategy than relying exclusively on raising the social security contribution rate.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/247.

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    Length: 15
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/247

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    Related research

    Keywords: Aging; Taxation; Pension regulations; Government expenditures; Public debt; Tax bases; Economic models; pension; pension system; retirement; pensions; retirement age; tax base; fiscal policy; public pension; dependency ratio; public pension system; fiscal adjustment; contribution rate; pension expenditure; fiscal model; fiscal surplus; tax rates; life expectancy; fiscal pressures; government spending; fiscal position; aggregate demand; fiscal measures; contribution rates; payroll taxes; fiscal balance; fiscal sustainability; pension assets; long-term care; health care; income tax base; private pension; long-term projections; pension benefits; tax increases; fiscal affairs department; national pensions; public finances; pension liabilities; budget constraint; early retirement; fiscal strategies; tax rate; fiscal target; fiscal authorities; benefit levels; payroll tax; risk-free rate; flat-rate pension; retirement savings; fiscal saving; accumulated savings; pension benefit; national pensions reserve fund; tax burden; public expenditure; fiscal affairs; public spending; pension age; fiscal structure; pension value; public expenditures; fiscal projections; replacement rates; contributory pension; pay-as-you-go system; fiscal consolidation; savings for retirement; pension systems;

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    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Dirk Muir & Douglas Laxton & Dennis P. J. Botman & Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Manmohan S. Kumar & Dennis P. J. Botman, 2007. "Global Aging Pressures," IMF Working Papers 07/196, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Rebucci & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye, 2005. "The Domestic and Global Impact of Japan's Policies for Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/209, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Robert Ford & Douglas Laxton, 1995. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 95/30, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:rus:hseeco:316801 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:
    1. Justin Doran, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(3), pages 221-237, March.

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