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Policy Challenges of Population Aging in Ireland

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  • Dora M. Iakova
  • Dennis P. J. Botman
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    Abstract

    The projected rise in age-related government spending as a share of GDP in Ireland over the next forty years is among the highest in the euro area. In the absence of reforms, public debt will increase to unsustainable levels. This paper uses the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to compare the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal strategies to accommodate the rise in age-related spending. The simulations suggest that adopting a package of measures, including an increase in the retirement age, broadening the tax base, and raising indirect taxes, would be a more growth-friendly strategy than relying exclusively on raising the social security contribution rate.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/247.

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    Length: 15
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/247

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    Related research

    Keywords: Aging; Taxation; Pension regulations; Government expenditures; Public debt; Tax bases; Economic models;

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

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    1. Nicoletta Batini & Papa N'Diaye & Alessandro Rebucci, 2005. "The domestic and global impact of Japan’s policies for growth," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Robert Ford & Douglas Laxton, 1995. "World Public Debt and Real Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 95/30, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Manmohan S. Kumar & Dennis P. J. Botman, 2007. "Global Aging Pressures: Impact of Fiscal Adjustment, Policy Cooperation, and Structural Reforms," IMF Working Papers 07/196, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 10512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Dirk Muir & Douglas Laxton & Dennis P. J. Botman & Andrei Romanov, 2006. "A New-Open-Economy Macro Model for Fiscal Policy Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 06/45, International Monetary Fund.
    6. repec:rus:hseeco:316801 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:
    1. Doran, Justin, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," MPRA Paper 48266, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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