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A Markov-Switching Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure

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  • Francis Y. Kumah
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    Abstract

    This paper characterizes exchange market pressure as a nonlinear Markov-switching phenomenon, and examines its dynamics in response to money growth and inflation over three regimes. The empirical results identify episodes of exchange market pressure in the Kyrgyz Republic and confirm the statistical superiority of the nonlinear regime-switching model over a linear VAR version in understanding exchange market pressure. The nonlinear empirical approach adequately characterizes the data generation process and yields results that are consistent with theoretical predictions, particularly the dampening effect of monetary contraction on depreciation pressure. During periods of appreciation pressure, however, the reverse policy option-monetary expansion-may not be efficient, particularly where PPP rather than UIP drives exchange rates. In addition, monetary expansion in such cases defeats the primary objective of monetary policy-price stability-and may exacerbate the instability.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/242.

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    Length: 26
    Date of creation: 01 Oct 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/242

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    Related research

    Keywords: Exchange rate regimes; Price stabilization; Economic models; exchange rate; exchange rate movements; inflation; foreign exchange; foreign exchange market; exchange rate changes; monetary policy; monetary expansion; exchange rates; monetary authorities; central bank; exchange market intervention; exchange rate depreciation; exchange rate appreciation; monetary stance; money demand; monetary model; exchange rate change; money supply; exchange rate dynamics; currency appreciation; monetary fund; national bank; monetary aggregates; foreign exchange reserves; exchange reserves; exchange rate volatility; floating exchange rate; monetary system; exchange rate shock; floating exchange rate regime; exchange rate literature; exchange rate crises; nominal exchange rate; exchange purchases; equilibrium exchange rate; tight monetary policy; monetary conditions; european monetary system; contractionary monetary policy; money balances; exchange rate regime; fixed exchange rate regimes; domestic money supply; exchange rate developments; freely floating exchange rate; exchange market instability; open market operations; money market; fixed exchange rate; monetary base;

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    References

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    1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    2. Hans-Martin Krolzig & Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon, . "A Markov-Switching Vector Equilibrium Correction Model of the UK Labour Market," Working Papers 185, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
    4. PENTECOST, Eric J. & VAN HOOYDONK, Charlotte & VAN POECK, André, 1997. "Measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the EU," SESO Working Papers 1997009, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
    5. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "Does the Current Account Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 21-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
    7. William H. Branson & Dale W. Henderson, 1984. "The Specification and Influence of Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 1283, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, and Charles Wyplosz., 1995. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-046, University of California at Berkeley.
    9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    10. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does monetary policy stabilize the exchange rate following a currency crisis?," Textos para discussão 396, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    11. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2002. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia's Currency Crisis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 36-44, February.
    12. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    13. Evan Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 02/14, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2003. "Revisiting the Interest Rate-Exchange Rate Nexus: A Markov Switching Approach," International Finance 0303002, EconWPA, revised 13 Mar 2003.
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    Cited by:
    1. Morales Vásquez, Daniel, 2011. "Presiones cambiarias en el Perú: Un enfoque no lineal," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 20, pages 57-71.
    2. KAMGNA, Severin Yves & Ndambendia, Houdou, 2008. "Excès de liquidité systémique et effectivité de la politique monétaire : cas des pays de la CEMAC
      [Excess liquidity and monetary policy effectiveness: The case of CEMAC countries]
      ," MPRA Paper 9599, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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