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What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?

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  • Frederick L. Joutz
  • Stephan Danninger

Abstract

Germany''s export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for capital goods, and (iv) regionalized production of goods (e.g. offshoring). An export model is estimated covering the period 1993-2005. The dominant factors explaining the increase in market share are trade relationships with fast growing countries and regionalized production in the export sector. Improved cost competitiveness had a comparatively smaller impact. There is no conclusive evidence of increased demand for capital goods.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/24.

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Length: 49
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/24

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Keywords: Export markets; Economic models; export growth; export demand; export market; export market share; domestic investment; export sector; trading partners; real effective exchange rate; global export; reer; unit labor costs; import demand; exporters; partner countries; export performance; trading partner; exporting countries; export share; goods export; total exports; oil exporters; oil exporting countries; global trade; international trade; imported inputs; economic integration; export volume; export prospects; world trade; aggregate exports; real exports; domestic demand; export goods; export shares; net exports; trade relationships; oil exporting; trade volumes; investment goods; export trade; export growth rates; share of exports; intermediate inputs; global marketplace; increased export; exports of goods; global markets; trade volume; export boom; export growth rate; competitive pressures; employment growth; increased exports; trade growth; open economy; trade partners; annual export growth; export market shares; market entry; domestic economy; growing trade; monetary union; vertical specialization; intermediate goods; trade links; trade share; foreign trade; increasing investment; total export; rapid export growth; trade model; exporter; capital goods exports; trade effects; export behavior; national markets; growing export; exporting sector; open economy macroeconomics; imported intermediate;

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References

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  1. Becker, Sascha O. & Ekholm, Karolina & Jäckle, Robert & Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2005. "Location Choice and Employment Decisions: A Comparison of German and Swedish Multinationals," CEPR Discussion Papers 4887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Davis, Donald R, 1998. "Does European Unemployment Prop Up American Wages? National Labor Markets and Global Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 478-94, June.
  3. Ulman, Lloyd & Gerlach, Knut & Giuliano, Paola, 2005. "Wage Moderation and Rising Unemployment," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt6cf9726r, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  4. Wendy Carlin & Andrew Glyn & John Van Reenen, 1999. "Export Market Performance of OECD countries: an empirical examination of the role of cost competitiveness," IFS Working Papers W99/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  5. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Thomas Philippon, 2004. "The Quality of Labor Relations and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 10590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Filippo di Mauro & Robert Anderton & Ekkehard Ernst & Laurent Maurin & Sonia Pokutova & Wim Melyn & Axel Jochem & N. M. Pakinezou & Javier Torres & Remy Lecat & Mark Cassidy & Roberto Tedeschi & Erik , 2005. "Competitiveness and the export performance of the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 30, European Central Bank.
  8. Peter Hooper & Karen Johnson & Jaime Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Sabine Stephan, 2006. "German Exports to the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 871-882, November.
  10. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2006. "The Pathological Export Boom and the Bazaar Effect: How to Solve the German Puzzle," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9), pages 1157-1175, 09.
  11. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2005. "Basar-Ökonomie Deutschland - Exportweltmeister oder Schusslicht?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(06), pages 03-42, 03.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hartmut Egger & Etzel Daniel & Hagen Lesch & Holger Zernanek & Christoph Moser, 2011. "Braucht Europa eine Koordinierung der nationalen Lohnpolitiken?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(02), pages 03-15, 02.
  2. Annamaria Simonazzi & Andrea Ginzburg & Gianluigi Nocella, 2013. "Economic relations between Germany and southern Europe," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 653-675.
  3. Bogdan Lissovolik, 2008. "Trends in Italy’s Nonprice Competitiveness," IMF Working Papers 08/124, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Emanuele Breda & Rita Cappariello & Roberta Zizza, 2008. "Vertical specialisation in Europe: Evidence from the import content of exports," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 682, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. J. Atsu Amegashie & Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2007. "Moral Hazard and the Composition of Transfers: Theory with an Application to Foreign Aid," Working Papers 0702, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
  6. David CARFÌ & Daniele SCHILIRÒ, 2011. "Crisis In The Euro Area. Coopetitive Game Solutions As New Policy Tools," Theoretical and Practical Research in Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 0(1), pages 23-36, June.
  7. A. Arrighetti & A. Ninni & E. Breda & R. Cappariello & M. Clemens & D. Schumacher, 2012. "Competitiveness in manufacturing. Germany vs. Italy – a comparison," Economics Department Working Papers 2012-EP01, Department of Economics, Parma University (Italy).
  8. repec:old:wpaper:338 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Christoph Böhringer & Victoria Alexeeva-Talebi, 2011. "Unilateral climate policy and competitiveness: The implications of differential emission pricing," Working Papers V-338-11, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2011.
  10. Andrea Finicelli & Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "A disaggregated analysis of the export performance of some industrial and emerging countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 93-113, April.
  11. Carfì, D. & Magaudda, M. & Schilirò, D., 2010. "Coopetitive game solutions for the eurozone economy," MPRA Paper 26541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "The German Model and the European Crisis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
  13. Breuer, Sebastian & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Who gains from nominal devaluation? An empirical assessment of Euro-area exports and imports," Working Papers 04/2013, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  14. Paolo Guerrieri & Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 2012. "Trade openness and international fragmentation of production in the European Union: the new divide?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 855, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Ulrich Haskamp, 2013. "Das ifo Exportklima – ein Frühindikator für die deutsche Exportprognose," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(04), pages 36-43, 03.

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