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Wild or Tamed?

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  • Hiroko Oura
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    Abstract

    With India''s GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its "speed limit." This paper attempts to shed light on this debate by providing up-to-date projections of India''s potential growth, including by clarifying differences in underlying assumptions used by various researchers that lead to a range of estimates. Estimates of potential growth on this basis range from 7.4 percent to 8.1 percent for 2006/07, and about 8 percent for the medium term. The medium-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could sustain strong productivity growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/224.

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    Length: 16
    Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/224

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    Related research

    Keywords: Economic growth; Economic forecasting; Gross domestic product; Economic reforms; Productivity; growth rate; capital stock; growth accounting; real gdp; capital accumulation; gdp growth; capital growth; total factor productivity; capital formation; gdp growth rate; growth rates; capital growth rate; capital output ratio; capital income; government securities;

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    1. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
    2. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "Why India Can Grow At 7 Percent a Year or More," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 04/118, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins & Arvind Virmani, 2006. "Sources of Growth in the Indian Economy," India Policy Forum, Global Economy and Development Program, The Brookings Institution, Global Economy and Development Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(1), pages 1-69.
    4. Arvind Subramanian & Raghuram Rajan & Ioannis Tokatlidis & Kalpana Kochhar & Utsav Kumar, 2006. "India's Pattern of Development," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 06/22, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind, 2004. "From 'Hindu Growth' to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 4371, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    7. Kochhar, Kalpana & Kumar, Utsav & Rajan, Raghuram & Subramanian, Arvind & Tokatlidis, Ioannis, 2006. "India's pattern of development: What happened, what follows?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 53(5), pages 981-1019, July.
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