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Can Miracles Lead to Crises? the Role of Optimism in Emerging Markets Crises

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  • Emine Boz

Abstract

Emerging market financial crises are abrupt and dramatic, usually occurring after a period of high output growth, massive capital flows, and a boom in asset markets. This paper develops an equilibrium asset-pricing model with informational frictions in which vulnerability and the crisis itself are consequences of the investor optimism in the period preceding the crisis. The model features two sets of investors, domestic and foreign. Both sets of investors learn from noisy signals, which contain information relevant for asset returns and formulate expectations, or "beliefs," about the state of productivity. We show that, if preceded by a sequence of positive signals, a small, negative noise shock can trigger a sharp downward adjustment in investors'' beliefs, asset prices, and consumption. The magnitude of this downward adjustment and sensitivity to negative signals increase with the level of optimism attained prior to the negative signal.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/223.

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Length: 34
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/223

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Keywords: Emerging markets; Foreign investment; Economic models; investors; probability; equation; foreign investors; probabilities; standard deviation; calibration; discounted value; standard deviations; forecasting; autocorrelation; sensitivity analysis; equations; correlation; time series; normal distribution; markov process; computation; estimation procedure; international finance; short selling; normal density; investor confidence; horizontal axis; random variable; distribution of dividends; markov chain; calibrations; maximum likelihood estimation; survey; predictions; fixed costs; random variables; numerical analysis; surveys; probability density;

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References

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  1. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1999. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 3-35, January.
  2. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Ian Domowitz & Jack Glen & Ananth Madhavan, 2000. "Liquidity, Volatility, and Equity Trading Costs Across Countries and Over Time," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 322, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2003. "Exchange Rate Dynamics, Learning and Misperception," CEPR Discussion Papers 3725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
  7. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
  8. Albuquerque, Rui & Bauer, Gregory & Schneider, Martin, 2005. "International Equity Flows and Returns: A Quantitative Equilibrium Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5159, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Paasche, Bernhard, 2001. "Credit constraints and international financial crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 623-650, December.
  10. Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2002. "Persistent and Transitory Shocks, Learning, and Investment Dynamics," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 650-77, August.
  11. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
  12. John Heaton & Deborah Lucas, 1993. "Evaluating the Effects of Incomplete Markets on Risk Sharing and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 4249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "International and Domestic Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 7971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Emine Boz & Christian Daude & Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles revisited: learning about the trend," International Finance Discussion Papers 927, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Agustin Roitman & Christian Daude, 2011. "Imperfect Information and Saving in a Small Open Economy," IMF Working Papers 11/60, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Boz, Emine & Daude, Christian & Bora Durdu, C., 2011. "Emerging market business cycles: Learning about the trend," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 616-631.

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