Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements

This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data

Where Have the Monetary Surprises Gone? The Effects of FOMC Statements

Author Info

Andrew Swiston

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of central bank communication on market expectations of monetary policy and long-term interest rates by comparing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) action dates when a policy statement was made to dates before statements were issued. Increased communication has been associated with a reduction in the magnitude of short-term monetary surprises; a greater flow of information about the long-term path of policy that is distinct from the short-term surprise; and a larger role for these long-term surprises in the determination of long-term interest rates.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/185.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 26 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/185

Contact details of provider:
Postal: International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC USA
Phone: (202) 623-7000
Fax: (202) 623-4661
Email:
Web page: http://www.imf.org/external/pubind.htm
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/pubs/ord_info.htm

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-09-16 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2007-09-16 (Central Banking)
NEP-MAC-2007-09-16 (Macroeconomics)
NEP-MON-2007-09-16 (Monetary Economics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gurkaynak, Refet S & Sack, Brian & Swanson, Eric T, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," MPRA Paper 820, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
- Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May. [Downloadable!]
William Poole & Robert H & Rasche & Daniel L. Thornton, 2002. "Market anticipations of monetary policy actions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 65-94. [Downloadable!]
V. Vance Roley & Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., 1995. "Monetary policy actions and long-term interest rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-89. [Downloadable!]
Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2004-2), pages 1-100. [Downloadable!]
Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," NBER Working Papers 10402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Staff Reports 174, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
- Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-16, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Ben Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2003. "What explains the stock market's reaction to Federal Reserve policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
Bomfim, Antulio N., 2003. "Pre-announcement effects, news effects, and volatility: Monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Refet GÃ¼rkaynak & Brian Sack, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 323, Society for Computational Economics.
Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2001-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary policy alternatives at the zero bound: an empirical assessment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Monika Piazzesi & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Futures Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Future prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
Faust, Jon & Swanson, Eric T. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2004. "Identifying VARS based on high frequency futures data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1107-1131, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Jon Faust & Eric Swanson & and Jonathan H. Wright, 2002. "Identifying vars based on high frequency futures data," International Finance Discussion Papers 720, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Using federal funds futures contracts for monetary policy analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Lange, Joe & Sack, Brian & Whitesell, William, 2003. " Anticipations of Monetary Policy in Financial Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 889-909, December.
Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2000. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: evidence from the Fed funds futures markets," Staff Reports 99, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2006. "Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations When No Monetary Policy Changes Occur?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1641-1657, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You too can volunteer for RePEc, for example by editing a NEP report.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.