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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Andrew Swiston

Abstract

VARs of real growth since 1970 are used to estimate spillovers between the U.S., euro area, Japan, and an aggregate of small industrial countries, which proxies for global shocks. U.S. and global shocks generate significant spillovers, while those from the euro area and Japan are small. This paper also calculates the standard errors of impulse-response functions including uncertainty over the proper Cholesky ordering. Extensions adding real net exports, commodity prices, and financial variables indicate that financial effects dominate spillovers. The results by subperiod underline the importance of the great moderation in U.S. output fluctuations and associated financial stability in lowering output volatility elsewhere.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/182.

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Length: 52
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/182

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Keywords: Spillovers; Commodity prices; correlation; equation; covariance; interest rates; correlations; causation; standard errors; statistical significance; samples; standard error; equations; experimental data; estimation procedure; prediction; probability distribution; logarithm; forecasting; probability; covariances; random walks;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2005. "Equal Size, Equal Role? Interest Rate Interdependence Between the Euro Area and the United States," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 928-948, October.
  5. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Michael D. Bordo & Thomas Helbling, 2003. "Have National Business Cycles Become More Synchronized?," NBER Working Papers 10130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jerome & Mestre, Ricardo, 2005. "An area-wide model for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 39-59, January.
  13. Andrew Swiston & Tamim Bayoumi, 2007. "The Ties That Bind," IMF Working Papers 07/128, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daniel Zerfu Gurara & Mthuli Ncube, 2013. "Working Paper 183 - Global Economic Spillovers to Africa- A GVAR Approach," Working Paper Series 981, African Development Bank.
  2. Louis, Rosmy J & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2009. "Are Mortgage Rates Bubbling Up Trouble for Canadas Metropolitan Housing Sector?," MPRA Paper 17245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Spillovers From the Rest of the World Into Sub-Saharan African Countries," IMF Working Papers 09/155, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Kevin Clinton & Marianne Johnson & Huigang Chen & Ondra Kamenik & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/214, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Michel Juillard & Charles Freedman & Dmitry Korshunov & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Ioan Carabenciov & Igor Ermolaev & Jared Laxton, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices," IMF Working Papers 08/280, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
  7. Kingsley I. Obiora, 2010. "Do countries catch cold when trading partners sneeze? Evidence from spillovers in the Baltics," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 34(2), pages 143-160.
  8. Tamim Bayoumi & Andrew Swiston, 2008. "Spillovers Across Nafta," IMF Working Papers 08/3, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Jared Laxton & Igor Ermolaev & Charles Freedman & Ondra Kamenik & Michel Juillard & Douglas Laxton & Ioan Carabenciov & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 08/279, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Dées, Stéphane & Saint-Guilhem, Arthur, 2009. "The role of the United States in the global economy and its evolution over time," Working Paper Series 1034, European Central Bank.
  11. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A. Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Igor Ermolaev & Michel Juillard & Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Douglas Laxton & Ondra Kamenik & Dmitry Korshunov, 2008. "A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy," IMF Working Papers 08/278, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Andrea M. Maechler & Alexander F. Tieman, 2009. "The Real Effects of Financial Sector Risk," IMF Working Papers 09/198, International Monetary Fund.

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