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Go Long or Short in Pyramids? News from the Egyptian Stock Market

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Author Info

  • Isabella Massa
  • Andreas Billmeier

Abstract

Similar to other emerging economies, the Egyptian stock market has recently experienced a remarkable run-up but also a major downturn. This paper analyzes the stock market from two angles. First, it compares the performance of the major stock price index with its underlying fundamentals. Second, it explores the relationship between the Egyptian and other stock markets. The paper finds that (i) there is some evidence against a stable relationship between the Egyptian index and its fundamental value; and (ii) short-term correlations and long-term cointegrating relations provide conflicting signals on the value of Egyptian stocks as a means of diversification.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/179.

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Length: 81
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/179

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Keywords: Stock markets; Stock prices;

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References

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  1. Johansen, S ren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 740-778, October.
  2. Ito, Harumi & Lee, Darin, 2005. "Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. airline demand," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 75-95.
  3. Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between emerging European and developed stock markets: Has the EMU any impact?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-60.
  4. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2002. "Asset Price Bubbles and Stock Market Interlinkages," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-22, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 746-54, September.
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  7. Omran, M.F., 2007. "An analysis of the capital asset pricing model in the Egyptian stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 801-812, February.
  8. Omran, Mohammed & Pointon, John, 2001. "Does the inflation rate affect the performance of the stock market? The case of Egypt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 263-279, September.
  9. Thomas Lagoarde-Segot & Brian M. Lucey, 2007. "Capital Market Integration in the Middle East and North Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 43(3), pages 34-57, June.
  10. Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  11. Nikkinen, Jussi & Omran, Mohammad M. & Sahlstrom, Petri & Aijo, Janne, 2008. "Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: Evidence from 53 equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 27-46.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  13. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  14. Topol, Richard, 1991. "Bubbles and Volatility of Stock Prices: Effect of Mimetic Contagion," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 786-800, July.
  15. Mauro Mecagni & Maged Sawky Sourial, 1999. "The Egyptian Stock Market - Efficiency Tests and Volatility Effects," IMF Working Papers 99/48, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October.
  17. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  18. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia-Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Mark T. Hon & Jack Strauss & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "Contagion in financial markets after September 11: myth or reality?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 95-114.
  20. Kearney, Colm & Lucey, Brian M., 2004. "International equity market integration: Theory, evidence and implications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 571-583.
  21. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
  22. Chris Brooks & Apostolos Katsaris, 2003. "Rational Speculative Bubbles: An Empirical Investigation of the London Stock Exchange," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 319-346, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rania Al Mashat & Andreas Billmeier, 2008. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt," Working Papers 411, Economic Research Forum, revised Jun 2008.
  2. Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad & Waters, George, 2009. "Equity Price Bubbles in the Middle Eastern and North African Financial Markets," MPRA Paper 17859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia-Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.

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