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Fiscal Adjustments: Determinants and Macroeconomic Consequences

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Author Info
Daniel Leigh
Alexander Plekhanov
Manmohan S. Kumar

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Abstract

The paper analyzes the determinants of success of recent fiscal consolidations in the OECD countries as well as the short-run and long-run effects of fiscal adjustments on economic activity by looking at fourteen case studies, panel data for OECD countries, and the results of simulations using a non-Ricardian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. The study finds that while fiscal consolidations tend to have short-run contractionary effects, they can be expansionary in the long run, provided that they do not rely excessively on cuts in productive government expenditure. They can also create positive spillover effects for the rest of the world.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/178.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: 23 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/178

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Keywords: Working Paper ; Fiscal policy ; Adjustment process ; Public debt ; Economic models ;

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  2. Holger Gleich, 2003. "Budget institutions and fiscal performance in Central and Eastern European countries," Working Paper Series 215, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stefania Fabrizio & Ashoka Mody, 2006. "Can budget institutions counteract political indiscipline?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 689-739, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Abdul Abiad & Taimur Baig, 2005. "Underlying Factors Driving Fiscal Effort in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/106, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  7. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna & Francesco Trebbi, 2006. "Who adjusts and when? On the political economy of reforms," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2108, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, 2005. "Fiscal consolidation and decentralisation: a tale of two tiers," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 169-195, June.
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  9. Sebastian Hauptmeier & Martin Heipertz & Ludger Schuknecht, 2006. "Expenditure reform in industrialised countries - a case study approach," Working Paper Series 634, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2000. "Searching for Non-Linear Effects of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Tabellini, Guido, 1986. "Money, debt and deficits in a dynamic game," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-442, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Irina Tytell & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Does Financial Globalization Induce Better Macroeconomic Policies?," IMF Working Papers 04/84, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Wojciech Maliszewski & Mark J Flanagan & Mark A. Horton & George C. Tsibouris, 2006. "Experience with Large Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Occasional Papers 246, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Alesina, A. & Perotti, R., 1995. "Fiscal Expansions and Adjustments in OECD Countries," Discussion Papers 1995_25, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  16. repec:bep:maccon:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:1168-1168 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. C. John McDermott & Robert F. Westcott, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 96/59, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," IMF Working Papers 07/202, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  19. von Hagen, Jurgen & Strauch, Rolf R, 2001. " Fiscal Consolidations: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Success," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 327-46, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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