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The Effect of External Conditionson Growth in Latin America

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Author Info

  • Jeromin Zettelmeyer
  • Pär Österholm

Abstract

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Latin American GDP growth to external developments using a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-state priors. The model is estimated on quarterly data from 1994 to 2006 on key external and Latin American variables. It finds that 50 to 60 percent of the variation in Latin American GDP growth is accounted for by external shocks. Conditional forecasts for a variety of external scenarios suggest that Latin American growth is robust to moderate declines in commodity prices and U.S. or world growth, but sensitive to more extreme shocks, particularly a combined external slowdown and tightening of world financial conditions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/176.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/176

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Related research

Keywords: Commodity prices; Latin America; Economic growth; world growth; bond; bond spread; high yield bond; external shocks; corporate bond; market bond; emerging market bond; high-yield corporate bond; bond index; high-yield bond; dynamic impact; external financing; aggregate demand; financial systems; trading partners; world economy; bond markets; bond spreads; import demand; open economy; terms of trade; futures prices; export prices; financial assets; current account surplus; trade share;

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References

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999. "The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," Macroeconomics 9907006, EconWPA.
  2. Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 2005. "Monetary Policy with Judgement: Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5072, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  5. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
  6. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Inference in Vector Autoregressive Models with an Informative Prior on the Steady State," Working Paper Series 181, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Norman Loayza & Pablo Fajnzylber & César Calderón, 2005. "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean : Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7315, October.
  9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2005. "How might CAFTA change macroeconomic fluctuations in Central America?: Lessons from NAFTA," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 77-104, February.
  10. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  11. Alejandro Gaytán González & Jesús R. González García, 2006. "Structural Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Mexico: A Non-linear VAR Approach," Working Papers 2006-06, Banco de México.
  12. Pär Österholm, 2006. "Incorporating judgement in fan charts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-39, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. McNees, Stephen K., 1990. "The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 287-299, October.
  14. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2006. "Growth and Reforms in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 06/210, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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