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Assessing the Impact of a Change in the Composition of Public Spending

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Author Info

  • Ivan Tchakarov
  • Roland Straub

Abstract

Despite intense calls for safeguarding public investment in Europe, public investment expenditure, when measured in relation to GDP, has steadily fallen in the last three decades, evoking fears that economic activity may be correspondingly negatively affected. At the same time, however, public consumption in the EU-12 countries has trended up. In this paper, we provide a macroeconomic assessment of the observed change in the composition of public spending in the euro area in a medium-scale two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. First, we identify the channels through which both temporary and permanent public investment shocks generate larger fiscal multipliers than exogenous increases in public consumption. Second, we quantify the negative impact of a change in fiscal stance, characterized by a permanent rise in public consumption and a permanent fall in public investment, keeping the overall level of public spending constant. The key message of the paper is that calls for reversing the observed trend in the composition of public spending are well justified.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/168.

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Length: 47
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/168

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Related research

Keywords: Public investment; Government expenditures; Economic models; European Union; private investment; private capital; competitive markets; budget constraint; tax rate; foreign currency; fixed capital; level of public spending; gross fixed capital formation; liquidity constraints; government budget constraint; national accounts; public finances; tax revenue; risk ? premium; public investment spending; rates of return; international finance; public investment expenditures; investment spending; capital expenditure; investment expenditures; investment flows; cost of capital; budgetary deficits;

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References

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  1. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Romp, Ward & de Haan, Jakob, 2005. "Public capital and economic growth: a critical survey," EIB Papers 2/2005, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  3. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd in Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 05/159, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido, 2003. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Working Papers 73, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  5. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  6. Jakob Haan & Jan Sturm & Bernd Sikken, 1996. "Government capital formation: Explaining the decline," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 55-74, March.
  7. Evi Pappa, 2005. "New Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Labor Markets," Working Papers 293, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  8. Valila, Timo & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Evolution And Determinants Of Public Investment In Europe," Economic and Financial Reports 2005/1, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  9. David A. Aschauer, 1989. "Public investment and productivity growth in the Group of Seven," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 17-25.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Juraj Stančík & Timo Välilä, 2012. "Changes in the fiscal stance and the composition of public spending," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 199-217, August.
  2. Guillem López Casasnovas, 2010. "La calidad del gasto público y su influencia en el desarrollo económico: una validación empírica para los países de la OCDE 1970-2005," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 193(2), pages 9-48, June.
  3. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2010. "General-equilibrium effects of investment tax incentives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Francisco de Castro & Laura Fernández-Caballero, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks on the exchange rate in Spain," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1121, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  6. Forni, Lorenzo & Gerali, Andrea & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2010. "The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in euro area countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1791-1812, September.
  7. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Amela Hubic & Geert Langenus & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and Cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," BCL working papers 40, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  8. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs," Working Paper Series 0902, European Central Bank.
  9. Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010. "Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.

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