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Assessing the Impact of a Change in the Composition of Public Spending: A DSGE Approach

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  • Ivan Tchakarov
  • Roland Straub

Abstract

Despite intense calls for safeguarding public investment in Europe, public investment expenditure, when measured in relation to GDP, has steadily fallen in the last three decades, evoking fears that economic activity may be correspondingly negatively affected. At the same time, however, public consumption in the EU-12 countries has trended up. In this paper, we provide a macroeconomic assessment of the observed change in the composition of public spending in the euro area in a medium-scale two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. First, we identify the channels through which both temporary and permanent public investment shocks generate larger fiscal multipliers than exogenous increases in public consumption. Second, we quantify the negative impact of a change in fiscal stance, characterized by a permanent rise in public consumption and a permanent fall in public investment, keeping the overall level of public spending constant. The key message of the paper is that calls for reversing the observed trend in the composition of public spending are well justified.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/168.

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Length: 47
Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/168

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Keywords: Public investment; Government expenditures; Economic models; European Union;

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References

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  1. Coenen, Günter & Straub, Roland, 2005. "Does government spending crowd in private consumption? Theory and empirical evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0513, European Central Bank.
  2. Jordi Galí & J. David López Salido & Javier Vallés, 2003. "Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0321, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries 1960-2001," Public Economics 0506015, EconWPA.
  4. David Aschauer, 1988. "Is public expenditure productive?," Staff Memoranda 88-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  5. Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, 04.
  6. Douglas Laxton & Michael Kumhof, 2007. "A Party without a Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits," 2007 Meeting Papers 676, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. Jordi Gali & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," NBER Working Papers 9773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. King, R.G. & Baxter, M., 1990. "Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium," RCER Working Papers 244, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  9. Florin O. Bilbiie & Roland Straub, 2004. "Fiscal Policy, Business Cycles and Labor-Market Fluctuations," MNB Working Papers 2004/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  10. Jakob Haan & Jan Sturm & Bernd Sikken, 1996. "Government capital formation: Explaining the decline," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 55-74, March.
  11. Alessandro Turrini, 2004. "Public investment and the EU fiscal framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 202, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  12. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-96, September.
  13. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  14. Valila, Timo & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Evolution And Determinants Of Public Investment In Europe," Economic and Financial Reports 2005/1, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  15. David A. Aschauer, 1989. "Public investment and productivity growth in the Group of Seven," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Sep, pages 17-25.
  16. Evi Pappa, 2005. "New Keynesian or RBC Transmission? The Effects of Fiscal Policy in Labor Markets," Working Papers 293, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs," Working Paper Series 0902, European Central Bank.
  2. Forni, Lorenzo & Gerali, Andrea & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2010. "The macroeconomics of fiscal consolidations in euro area countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1791-1812, September.
  3. Stančík, Juraj & Välilä, Timo, 2010. "changes in the fiscal stance and the composition of public spending," Economic and Financial Reports 2010/2, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  4. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2010. "General-equilibrium effects of investment tax incentives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Guillem López Casasnovas, 2010. "La calidad del gasto público y su influencia en el desarrollo económico: una validación empírica para los países de la OCDE 1970-2005," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 193(2), pages 9-48, June.
  6. repec:dgr:uvatin:2010021 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2011. "FiMod - a DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,06, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  8. Christoph Priesmeier & Nikolai Stähler, 2011. "Long Dark Shadows Or Innovative Spirits? The Effects Of (Smoothing) Business Cycles On Economic Growth: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 898-912, December.
  9. Carine Bouthevillain & John Caruana & Cristina Checherita & Jorge Cunha & Esther Gordo & Stephan Haroutunian & Amela Hubic & Geert Langenus & Bernhard Manzke & Javier J. Pérez & Pietro Tommasino, 2009. "Pros and Cons of various fiscal measures to stimulate the economy," BCL working papers 40, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  10. Francisco de Castro & Laura Fernández, 2013. "The Effects Of Fiscal Shocks On The Exchange Rate In Spain," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 151-180.

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