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Globalization, Gluts, Innovation or Irrationality: What Explains the Easy Financing of the U.S. Current Account Deficit?

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Author Info
Ravi Balakrishnan
Volodymyr Tulin
Tamim Bayoumi

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Abstract

This paper examines the roles of U.S. financial innovation, financial globalization, and the savings glut hypothesis in explaining the rise in U.S. external debt, first in a portfolio balance model, and then empirically. Perhaps surprisingly, financial deepening and falling home bias in industrialized countries explain a large share of external financing. The savings glut hypothesis (including difficult-to-track petrodollar recycling) and U.S. financial innovation are also important, in part as a cause of declining home bias in industrialized countries. The latter underscores the importance of not looking at these factors in isolation, but rather as a constellation of forces that can be self-reinforcing.

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Paper provided by International Monetary Fund in its series IMF Working Papers with number 07/160.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 13 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:07/160

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Keywords: Working Paper ; Current account ; United States ; External debt ; Deficit financing ; Financial instruments ; Globalization ; Savings ; Economic models ;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ricardo Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1067, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Steven B. Kamin & Trevor A. Reeve & Nathan Sheets, 2007. "U.S. external adjustment: is it disorderly? Is it unique? Will it disrupt the rest of the world?," International Finance Discussion Papers 892, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  3. Francis E. Warnock & Chad Cleaver, 2002. "Financial centers and the geography of capital flows," International Finance Discussion Papers 722, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  4. Charles P. Thomas, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp162, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  5. Miranda Xafa, 2007. "Global Imbalances and Financial Stability," IMF Working Papers 07/111, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ravi Balakrishnan & Volodymyr Tulin, 2006. "U.S. Dollar Risk Premiums and Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 06/160, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  7. Carol C. Bertaut & William L. Griever, 2004. "Recent developments in cross-border investment in securities," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Win, pages 19-31. [Downloadable!]
  8. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Innovation, Technology Transfer, and the World Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(2), pages 253-66, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2005-1), pages 67-146. [Downloadable!]
  10. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 11137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Xafa, Miranda, 2007. "Global imbalances and financial stability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 783-796. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2006. "The Performance of International Equity Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 12346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2008. "Do differences in financial development explain the global pattern of current account imbalances?," International Finance Discussion Papers 923, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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